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Lowest temperature in Miami on May 1?

icon for Lowest temperature in Miami on May 1?

Lowest temperature in Miami on May 1?

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

72-73°F 35%

70-71°F 27%

74-75°F 18%

67°F or below 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW

72-73°F 35%

70-71°F 27%

74-75°F 18%

67°F or below 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW

67°F or below

$511 Vol.

3%

68-69°F

$407 Vol.

1%

70-71°F

$363 Vol.

33%

72-73°F

$446 Vol.

39%

74-75°F

$292 Vol.

12%

76-77°F

$576 Vol.

1%

78-79°F

$379 Vol.

1%

80-81°F

$834 Vol.

1%

82-83°F

$442 Vol.

1%

84-85°F

$317 Vol.

1%

86°F or higher

$2,167 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Miami International Airport indicate a low temperature around 71°F tonight under partly cloudy skies and light south winds shifting variable after midnight, driving trader consensus toward 72-73°F (37.5% implied probability) and 70-71°F (22%). This positioning aligns with recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showing limited overnight radiational cooling due to persistent humidity near 70%, urban heat island effects, and southerly flow preventing colder air advection. Historical May 1 lows at MIA average 72°F, with daytime highs reaching 86-89°F today providing residual warmth. Uncertainties include potential cloud cover variations or late-night breezes that could adjust the minimum by 1-2°F; hourly observations will refine the outcome as resolution nears.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,734
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Miami International Airport indicate a low temperature around 71°F tonight under partly cloudy skies and light south winds shifting variable after midnight, driving trader consensus toward 72-73°F (37.5% implied probability) and 70-71°F (22%). This positioning aligns with recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showing limited overnight radiational cooling due to persistent humidity near 70%, urban heat island effects, and southerly flow preventing colder air advection. Historical May 1 lows at MIA average 72°F, with daytime highs reaching 86-89°F today providing residual warmth. Uncertainties include potential cloud cover variations or late-night breezes that could adjust the minimum by 1-2°F; hourly observations will refine the outcome as resolution nears.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,734
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Miami on May 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "72-73°F" at 39%, followed by "70-71°F" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Miami on May 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Miami on May 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Miami on May 1?" is "72-73°F" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "70-71°F" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Miami on May 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.