**Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate minimum temperatures of 25–26°C on June 15 amid an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough driving unsettled conditions with heavy rain and high cloud cover.** This setup favors radiative cooling limits typical of humid summer nights, positioning 26°C as the market leader at 75.5% implied probability. Model consensus and historical June climatology (average overnight lows near 26°C) support this range, with 25°C as a plausible secondary outcome at 17% if rainfall intensifies overnight. Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected for June–August provide broader context but do not override the short-term daily guidance. Traders appear to weigh the official 26–29°C daytime range and associated moisture effects most heavily, with lower outcomes (24°C or below) priced minimally due to limited cooling potential under these atmospheric conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
26°C 77%
25°C 17%
24°C 4.1%
23°C <1%
NEW
$13,745 Vol.
NEW
$13,745 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
17%
26°C
77%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 77%
25°C 17%
24°C 4.1%
23°C <1%
NEW
$13,745 Vol.
NEW
$13,745 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
22°C or below
$890 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,011 Vol.
1%
24°C
$806 Vol.
4%
25°C
$481 Vol.
17%
26°C
$1,178 Vol.
77%
27°C
$4,828 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,825 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$408 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$151 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$406 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate minimum temperatures of 25–26°C on June 15 amid an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough driving unsettled conditions with heavy rain and high cloud cover.** This setup favors radiative cooling limits typical of humid summer nights, positioning 26°C as the market leader at 75.5% implied probability. Model consensus and historical June climatology (average overnight lows near 26°C) support this range, with 25°C as a plausible secondary outcome at 17% if rainfall intensifies overnight. Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected for June–August provide broader context but do not override the short-term daily guidance. Traders appear to weigh the official 26–29°C daytime range and associated moisture effects most heavily, with lower outcomes (24°C or below) priced minimally due to limited cooling potential under these atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
Volume
$13,745End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate minimum temperatures of 25–26°C on June 15 amid an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough driving unsettled conditions with heavy rain and high cloud cover.** This setup favors radiative cooling limits typical of humid summer nights, positioning 26°C as the market leader at 75.5% implied probability. Model consensus and historical June climatology (average overnight lows near 26°C) support this range, with 25°C as a plausible secondary outcome at 17% if rainfall intensifies overnight. Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected for June–August provide broader context but do not override the short-term daily guidance. Traders appear to weigh the official 26–29°C daytime range and associated moisture effects most heavily, with lower outcomes (24°C or below) priced minimally due to limited cooling potential under these atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,745End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate minimum temperatures of 25–26°C on June 15 amid an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough driving unsettled conditions with heavy rain and high cloud cover.** This setup favors radiative cooling limits typical of humid summer nights, positioning 26°C as the market leader at 75.5% implied probability. Model consensus and historical June climatology (average overnight lows near 26°C) support this range, with 25°C as a plausible secondary outcome at 17% if rainfall intensifies overnight. Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected for June–August provide broader context but do not override the short-term daily guidance. Traders appear to weigh the official 26–29°C daytime range and associated moisture effects most heavily, with lower outcomes (24°C or below) priced minimally due to limited cooling potential under these atmospheric conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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