**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on June 15, 2026, centers on 26°C (77% implied probability) because official forecasts and model consensus point to overnight minima in that narrow range under persistent monsoon conditions.** The Hong Kong Observatory and multiple numerical weather prediction outputs indicate a day with heavy showers and thunderstorms driven by an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough. This setup delivers cloud cover and rainfall that limit daytime heating while keeping nighttime radiative cooling modest, producing forecast lows clustered around 25–26°C. Historical June climatology reinforces this, with typical overnight minima near 26°C during unsettled, humid periods. Recent data show no rapid cooling or clear-sky radiative events that would push readings to 24°C or below, keeping lower-probability outcomes at single-digit or sub-1% levels. Above-normal seasonal temperatures projected for June–August 2026 further support the market’s tight clustering around the 25–26°C band, with any last-minute model shifts in rain timing or wind likely to be the main variables still capable of nudging the final observed minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?
26°C 77%
25°C 18%
24°C 4.1%
23°C <1%
NEW
$13,829 Vol.
NEW
$13,829 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
18%
26°C
77%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 77%
25°C 18%
24°C 4.1%
23°C <1%
NEW
$13,829 Vol.
NEW
$13,829 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
22°C or below
$897 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,028 Vol.
1%
24°C
$833 Vol.
4%
25°C
$488 Vol.
18%
26°C
$1,356 Vol.
77%
27°C
$4,835 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,825 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$408 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$151 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$406 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on June 15, 2026, centers on 26°C (77% implied probability) because official forecasts and model consensus point to overnight minima in that narrow range under persistent monsoon conditions.**
The Hong Kong Observatory and multiple numerical weather prediction outputs indicate a day with heavy showers and thunderstorms driven by an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough. This setup delivers cloud cover and rainfall that limit daytime heating while keeping nighttime radiative cooling modest, producing forecast lows clustered around 25–26°C. Historical June climatology reinforces this, with typical overnight minima near 26°C during unsettled, humid periods.
Recent data show no rapid cooling or clear-sky radiative events that would push readings to 24°C or below, keeping lower-probability outcomes at single-digit or sub-1% levels. Above-normal seasonal temperatures projected for June–August 2026 further support the market’s tight clustering around the 25–26°C band, with any last-minute model shifts in rain timing or wind likely to be the main variables still capable of nudging the final observed minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
Volume
$13,829End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on June 15, 2026, centers on 26°C (77% implied probability) because official forecasts and model consensus point to overnight minima in that narrow range under persistent monsoon conditions.**
The Hong Kong Observatory and multiple numerical weather prediction outputs indicate a day with heavy showers and thunderstorms driven by an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough. This setup delivers cloud cover and rainfall that limit daytime heating while keeping nighttime radiative cooling modest, producing forecast lows clustered around 25–26°C. Historical June climatology reinforces this, with typical overnight minima near 26°C during unsettled, humid periods.
Recent data show no rapid cooling or clear-sky radiative events that would push readings to 24°C or below, keeping lower-probability outcomes at single-digit or sub-1% levels. Above-normal seasonal temperatures projected for June–August 2026 further support the market’s tight clustering around the 25–26°C band, with any last-minute model shifts in rain timing or wind likely to be the main variables still capable of nudging the final observed minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,829End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on June 15, 2026, centers on 26°C (77% implied probability) because official forecasts and model consensus point to overnight minima in that narrow range under persistent monsoon conditions.** The Hong Kong Observatory and multiple numerical weather prediction outputs indicate a day with heavy showers and thunderstorms driven by an active southwest monsoon and low-pressure trough. This setup delivers cloud cover and rainfall that limit daytime heating while keeping nighttime radiative cooling modest, producing forecast lows clustered around 25–26°C. Historical June climatology reinforces this, with typical overnight minima near 26°C during unsettled, humid periods. Recent data show no rapid cooling or clear-sky radiative events that would push readings to 24°C or below, keeping lower-probability outcomes at single-digit or sub-1% levels. Above-normal seasonal temperatures projected for June–August 2026 further support the market’s tight clustering around the 25–26°C band, with any last-minute model shifts in rain timing or wind likely to be the main variables still capable of nudging the final observed minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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