Real-time observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C overnight on June 13, 2026, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical early-summer climatology in the region's humid subtropical environment, where June overnight lows commonly stabilize between 25–27°C under light southerly flow and limited cooling influences from monsoon patterns or cloud cover. Multiple forecast models converged on this threshold ahead of the date, and trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game evaluation of official station data rather than projections. A realistic challenge would require an official HKO revision or an unseasonal late drop below 24°C from unexpected advection, though current conditions make such shifts highly improbable before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?
25°C 99.6%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$94,957 Vol.
$94,957 Vol.
Jun 13, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.6%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$94,957 Vol.
$94,957 Vol.
Jun 13, 2026
22°C or below
$8,157 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$8,446 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$10,176 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$19,829 Vol.
100%
26°C
$24,698 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$12,106 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$3,630 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,430 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,527 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,481 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$1,478 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Real-time observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C overnight on June 13, 2026, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical early-summer climatology in the region's humid subtropical environment, where June overnight lows commonly stabilize between 25–27°C under light southerly flow and limited cooling influences from monsoon patterns or cloud cover. Multiple forecast models converged on this threshold ahead of the date, and trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game evaluation of official station data rather than projections. A realistic challenge would require an official HKO revision or an unseasonal late drop below 24°C from unexpected advection, though current conditions make such shifts highly improbable before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 11, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$94,957End Date
Jun 13, 2026Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Real-time observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C overnight on June 13, 2026, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical early-summer climatology in the region's humid subtropical environment, where June overnight lows commonly stabilize between 25–27°C under light southerly flow and limited cooling influences from monsoon patterns or cloud cover. Multiple forecast models converged on this threshold ahead of the date, and trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game evaluation of official station data rather than projections. A realistic challenge would require an official HKO revision or an unseasonal late drop below 24°C from unexpected advection, though current conditions make such shifts highly improbable before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$94,957End Date
Jun 13, 2026Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Real-time observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum temperature of exactly 25°C overnight on June 13, 2026, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with typical early-summer climatology in the region's humid subtropical environment, where June overnight lows commonly stabilize between 25–27°C under light southerly flow and limited cooling influences from monsoon patterns or cloud cover. Multiple forecast models converged on this threshold ahead of the date, and trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game evaluation of official station data rather than projections. A realistic challenge would require an official HKO revision or an unseasonal late drop below 24°C from unexpected advection, though current conditions make such shifts highly improbable before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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