Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in @khamenei_ir posting patterns following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's martyrdom earlier this year and amid new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's recovery from war injuries sustained in recent US-Israeli strikes. No posts have appeared since April 13, yielding zero in the April 21-28 window and sparse activity prior (two April 7-14, one early April), favoring low bins like 5-9 and <5 while recent 3-post clusters support 15-19 and 10-14. The 20-24 edge stems from pre-transition bursts tied to Resistance updates or holidays like Easter. Escalation in Yemen-Lebanon fronts, diplomatic statements, or leadership stabilization could spark a flurry, separating higher outcomes; continued silence amid internal transitions favors lows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?
Khamenei # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?
20-24 33.9%
15-19 29.0%
5-9 26%
10-14 22%
NEW
NEW
May 5, 2026
<5
47%
5-9
26%
10-14
22%
15-19
29%
20-24
34%
25-29
3%
30-34
2%
35-39
3%
40-44
2%
45-49
1%
50-54
2%
55-59
2%
60+
3%
20-24 33.9%
15-19 29.0%
5-9 26%
10-14 22%
NEW
NEW
May 5, 2026
<5
$411 Vol.
47%
5-9
$54 Vol.
26%
10-14
$88 Vol.
22%
15-19
$24 Vol.
29%
20-24
$24 Vol.
34%
25-29
$81 Vol.
3%
30-34
$73 Vol.
2%
35-39
$64 Vol.
3%
40-44
$188 Vol.
2%
45-49
$123 Vol.
1%
50-54
$90 Vol.
2%
55-59
$95 Vol.
2%
60+
$543 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 28, 12:00 PM ET and May 5, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in @khamenei_ir posting patterns following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's martyrdom earlier this year and amid new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's recovery from war injuries sustained in recent US-Israeli strikes. No posts have appeared since April 13, yielding zero in the April 21-28 window and sparse activity prior (two April 7-14, one early April), favoring low bins like 5-9 and <5 while recent 3-post clusters support 15-19 and 10-14. The 20-24 edge stems from pre-transition bursts tied to Resistance updates or holidays like Easter. Escalation in Yemen-Lebanon fronts, diplomatic statements, or leadership stabilization could spark a flurry, separating higher outcomes; continued silence amid internal transitions favors lows.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 28, 12:00 PM ET and May 5, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$1,854End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 28, 12:00 PM ET and May 5, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in @khamenei_ir posting patterns following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's martyrdom earlier this year and amid new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's recovery from war injuries sustained in recent US-Israeli strikes. No posts have appeared since April 13, yielding zero in the April 21-28 window and sparse activity prior (two April 7-14, one early April), favoring low bins like 5-9 and <5 while recent 3-post clusters support 15-19 and 10-14. The 20-24 edge stems from pre-transition bursts tied to Resistance updates or holidays like Easter. Escalation in Yemen-Lebanon fronts, diplomatic statements, or leadership stabilization could spark a flurry, separating higher outcomes; continued silence amid internal transitions favors lows.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 28, 12:00 PM ET and May 5, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,854End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus reflects uncertainty in @khamenei_ir posting patterns following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's martyrdom earlier this year and amid new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's recovery from war injuries sustained in recent US-Israeli strikes. No posts have appeared since April 13, yielding zero in the April 21-28 window and sparse activity prior (two April 7-14, one early April), favoring low bins like 5-9 and <5 while recent 3-post clusters support 15-19 and 10-14. The 20-24 edge stems from pre-transition bursts tied to Resistance updates or holidays like Easter. Escalation in Yemen-Lebanon fronts, diplomatic statements, or leadership stabilization could spark a flurry, separating higher outcomes; continued silence amid internal transitions favors lows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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