James Comey faces an active federal indictment from April 2026 on charges of threatening the president and transmitting a threat, stemming from a 2025 social media post. The case is pending in the Eastern District of North Carolina, with arraignment scheduled for September 30 and trial set for October 21—well after the June 30 resolution date. An earlier 2025 indictment on false statements charges was dismissed, and no other proceedings place Comey in custody or on a fast-track path to conviction and sentencing. Criminal cases require time for motions, discovery, trial, and potential appeals before incarceration can occur. Trader consensus at 99.1% on “No” reflects these procedural realities. Late-stage developments such as an unexpected plea deal or executive intervention remain theoretically possible but face high institutional and timeline barriers in the remaining weeks.