Trader consensus on the Khamenei.ir X account posting fewer than 5 times from April 24 to May 1 heavily reflects the absence of any posts since April 13, with zero activity so far in the period amid ongoing Iranian leadership transition following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes. The account, now featuring archival statements from the "martyred Leader," has slowed from roughly one post every few days in early April to complete silence for over two weeks, likely due to mourning observances, internal succession dynamics involving figures like Mojtaba Khamenei, and heightened regional tensions including a recent US-Iran ceasefire. With only May 1 remaining, traders see slim odds for a surge, pricing 10-14 posts next on historical patterns but discounting recent dormancy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts April 24 - May 1, 2026?
Khamenei # posts April 24 - May 1, 2026?
<5 57%
5-9 10.2%
10-14 7%
15-19 2.2%
$15,076 Vol.
$15,076 Vol.
May 1, 2026
<5
57%
5-9
10%
10-14
7%
15-19
2%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
2%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 57%
5-9 10.2%
10-14 7%
15-19 2.2%
$15,076 Vol.
$15,076 Vol.
May 1, 2026
<5
$6,431 Vol.
57%
5-9
$555 Vol.
10%
10-14
$599 Vol.
7%
15-19
$1,637 Vol.
2%
20-24
$663 Vol.
1%
25-29
$494 Vol.
1%
30-34
$401 Vol.
1%
35-39
$798 Vol.
2%
40-44
$471 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$437 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$384 Vol.
<1%
55-59
$1,109 Vol.
<1%
60+
$1,095 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on the Khamenei.ir X account posting fewer than 5 times from April 24 to May 1 heavily reflects the absence of any posts since April 13, with zero activity so far in the period amid ongoing Iranian leadership transition following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes. The account, now featuring archival statements from the "martyred Leader," has slowed from roughly one post every few days in early April to complete silence for over two weeks, likely due to mourning observances, internal succession dynamics involving figures like Mojtaba Khamenei, and heightened regional tensions including a recent US-Iran ceasefire. With only May 1 remaining, traders see slim odds for a surge, pricing 10-14 posts next on historical patterns but discounting recent dormancy.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$15,076End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on the Khamenei.ir X account posting fewer than 5 times from April 24 to May 1 heavily reflects the absence of any posts since April 13, with zero activity so far in the period amid ongoing Iranian leadership transition following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes. The account, now featuring archival statements from the "martyred Leader," has slowed from roughly one post every few days in early April to complete silence for over two weeks, likely due to mourning observances, internal succession dynamics involving figures like Mojtaba Khamenei, and heightened regional tensions including a recent US-Iran ceasefire. With only May 1 remaining, traders see slim odds for a surge, pricing 10-14 posts next on historical patterns but discounting recent dormancy.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$15,076End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Khamenei.ir X account posting fewer than 5 times from April 24 to May 1 heavily reflects the absence of any posts since April 13, with zero activity so far in the period amid ongoing Iranian leadership transition following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes. The account, now featuring archival statements from the "martyred Leader," has slowed from roughly one post every few days in early April to complete silence for over two weeks, likely due to mourning observances, internal succession dynamics involving figures like Mojtaba Khamenei, and heightened regional tensions including a recent US-Iran ceasefire. With only May 1 remaining, traders see slim odds for a surge, pricing 10-14 posts next on historical patterns but discounting recent dormancy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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