Amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism toward a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal, driven by unresolved disputes over Tehran's nuclear program and the ongoing US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile two-week truce took hold on April 8 after February's escalation of airstrikes and missile barrages, but recent diplomatic efforts faltered as President Trump reviews Iran's latest proposals—excluding nuclear talks—while Iranian officials maintain a "war situation" posture. No direct bilateral diplomacy exists between Israel and Iran, with mutual non-recognition and proxy conflicts via Hezbollah persisting; upcoming indirect talks risk collapse without concessions, underscoring structural barriers to lasting accords.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$390,171 Vol.
May 31, 2026
April 30
<1%
June 30
8%
$390,171 Vol.
April 30
$159,621 Vol.
<1%
June 30
$74,205 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism toward a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal, driven by unresolved disputes over Tehran's nuclear program and the ongoing US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile two-week truce took hold on April 8 after February's escalation of airstrikes and missile barrages, but recent diplomatic efforts faltered as President Trump reviews Iran's latest proposals—excluding nuclear talks—while Iranian officials maintain a "war situation" posture. No direct bilateral diplomacy exists between Israel and Iran, with mutual non-recognition and proxy conflicts via Hezbollah persisting; upcoming indirect talks risk collapse without concessions, underscoring structural barriers to lasting accords.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$390,171End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism toward a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal, driven by unresolved disputes over Tehran's nuclear program and the ongoing US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile two-week truce took hold on April 8 after February's escalation of airstrikes and missile barrages, but recent diplomatic efforts faltered as President Trump reviews Iran's latest proposals—excluding nuclear talks—while Iranian officials maintain a "war situation" posture. No direct bilateral diplomacy exists between Israel and Iran, with mutual non-recognition and proxy conflicts via Hezbollah persisting; upcoming indirect talks risk collapse without concessions, underscoring structural barriers to lasting accords.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$390,171End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism toward a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal, driven by unresolved disputes over Tehran's nuclear program and the ongoing US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A fragile two-week truce took hold on April 8 after February's escalation of airstrikes and missile barrages, but recent diplomatic efforts faltered as President Trump reviews Iran's latest proposals—excluding nuclear talks—while Iranian officials maintain a "war situation" posture. No direct bilateral diplomacy exists between Israel and Iran, with mutual non-recognition and proxy conflicts via Hezbollah persisting; upcoming indirect talks risk collapse without concessions, underscoring structural barriers to lasting accords.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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