A US-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon took effect on April 16, 2026, to facilitate negotiations toward a permanent security and peace agreement, but the truce—extended by three weeks following Washington talks on April 23—remains fragile amid mutual accusations of violations, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire. Israel maintains troops in a reinforced security zone in southern Lebanon and insists on Hezbollah's disarmament as a precondition, rejecting demands for full withdrawal, while Lebanese officials seek broader de-escalation. No permanent deal has emerged, with direct talks ongoing under diplomatic pressure; further extensions or breakdowns hinge on upcoming ambassador-level meetings and compliance with truce terms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
$103,338 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
7%
$103,338 Vol.
May 31
$26,393 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A US-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon took effect on April 16, 2026, to facilitate negotiations toward a permanent security and peace agreement, but the truce—extended by three weeks following Washington talks on April 23—remains fragile amid mutual accusations of violations, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire. Israel maintains troops in a reinforced security zone in southern Lebanon and insists on Hezbollah's disarmament as a precondition, rejecting demands for full withdrawal, while Lebanese officials seek broader de-escalation. No permanent deal has emerged, with direct talks ongoing under diplomatic pressure; further extensions or breakdowns hinge on upcoming ambassador-level meetings and compliance with truce terms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Volume
$103,338End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A US-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon took effect on April 16, 2026, to facilitate negotiations toward a permanent security and peace agreement, but the truce—extended by three weeks following Washington talks on April 23—remains fragile amid mutual accusations of violations, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire. Israel maintains troops in a reinforced security zone in southern Lebanon and insists on Hezbollah's disarmament as a precondition, rejecting demands for full withdrawal, while Lebanese officials seek broader de-escalation. No permanent deal has emerged, with direct talks ongoing under diplomatic pressure; further extensions or breakdowns hinge on upcoming ambassador-level meetings and compliance with truce terms.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$103,338End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered 10-day cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon took effect on April 16, 2026, to facilitate negotiations toward a permanent security and peace agreement, but the truce—extended by three weeks following Washington talks on April 23—remains fragile amid mutual accusations of violations, including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire. Israel maintains troops in a reinforced security zone in southern Lebanon and insists on Hezbollah's disarmament as a precondition, rejecting demands for full withdrawal, while Lebanese officials seek broader de-escalation. No permanent deal has emerged, with direct talks ongoing under diplomatic pressure; further extensions or breakdowns hinge on upcoming ambassador-level meetings and compliance with truce terms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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