Ongoing regional conflict since late February 2026, including strikes on Iran and subsequent attacks on commercial vessels, has driven shipowners to suspend most transits through the Strait of Hormuz due to elevated security risks, war-risk insurance premiums, and IRGC oversight of passages. Daily crossings remain at roughly 10% of the pre-crisis average of 60 or more, with recent reports showing Iran coordinating limited groups such as 26 vessels in a 24-hour period and gradual increases aided by U.S. navigation guidance. This sustained low throughput explains the overwhelming trader consensus around 25-49 weekly transits. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough, expanded military escorts enabling safer bulk movements, or verifiable de-escalation reducing attacks could still lift volumes into higher ranges before week-end data finalizes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 25?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 25?
25-49 99.7%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
100+ <1%
$220,890 Vol.
$220,890 Vol.
Jun 1, 2026
<25
<1%
25-49
100%
50-74
1%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 99.7%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
100+ <1%
$220,890 Vol.
$220,890 Vol.
Jun 1, 2026
<25
$74,350 Vol.
<1%
25-49
$54,596 Vol.
100%
50-74
$45,906 Vol.
1%
75-99
$23,581 Vol.
1%
100+
$22,457 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing regional conflict since late February 2026, including strikes on Iran and subsequent attacks on commercial vessels, has driven shipowners to suspend most transits through the Strait of Hormuz due to elevated security risks, war-risk insurance premiums, and IRGC oversight of passages. Daily crossings remain at roughly 10% of the pre-crisis average of 60 or more, with recent reports showing Iran coordinating limited groups such as 26 vessels in a 24-hour period and gradual increases aided by U.S. navigation guidance. This sustained low throughput explains the overwhelming trader consensus around 25-49 weekly transits. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough, expanded military escorts enabling safer bulk movements, or verifiable de-escalation reducing attacks could still lift volumes into higher ranges before week-end data finalizes.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 5:05 PM ET
Volume
$220,890End Date
Jun 1, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing regional conflict since late February 2026, including strikes on Iran and subsequent attacks on commercial vessels, has driven shipowners to suspend most transits through the Strait of Hormuz due to elevated security risks, war-risk insurance premiums, and IRGC oversight of passages. Daily crossings remain at roughly 10% of the pre-crisis average of 60 or more, with recent reports showing Iran coordinating limited groups such as 26 vessels in a 24-hour period and gradual increases aided by U.S. navigation guidance. This sustained low throughput explains the overwhelming trader consensus around 25-49 weekly transits. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough, expanded military escorts enabling safer bulk movements, or verifiable de-escalation reducing attacks could still lift volumes into higher ranges before week-end data finalizes.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$220,890End Date
Jun 1, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing regional conflict since late February 2026, including strikes on Iran and subsequent attacks on commercial vessels, has driven shipowners to suspend most transits through the Strait of Hormuz due to elevated security risks, war-risk insurance premiums, and IRGC oversight of passages. Daily crossings remain at roughly 10% of the pre-crisis average of 60 or more, with recent reports showing Iran coordinating limited groups such as 26 vessels in a 24-hour period and gradual increases aided by U.S. navigation guidance. This sustained low throughput explains the overwhelming trader consensus around 25-49 weekly transits. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough, expanded military escorts enabling safer bulk movements, or verifiable de-escalation reducing attacks could still lift volumes into higher ranges before week-end data finalizes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions