Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a consensus maximum temperature around 19-20°C for Warsaw on May 1, reflecting trader sentiment with 20°C at 44.5% and 19°C at 35.5%, amid broken clouds and light northerly winds allowing moderate solar heating above the early May historical average of 17°C. Key differentiators include subtle variations in afternoon cloud cover—thinner breaks favoring 20°C via enhanced insolation—and boundary layer stability, with urban heat at Warsaw Chopin Airport potentially tipping the balance. Model spreads capture this uncertainty, as recent 00Z runs show slight upward adjustments from cooler IMGW outlooks earlier in the week. Final IMGW hourly guidance expected later today could refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 1?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 1?
20°C 45%
19°C 38%
21°C 14%
18°C 5.9%
NEW
$16,875 Vol.
NEW
$16,875 Vol.
May 1, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
6%
19°C
38%
20°C
45%
21°C
14%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 45%
19°C 38%
21°C 14%
18°C 5.9%
NEW
$16,875 Vol.
NEW
$16,875 Vol.
May 1, 2026
15°C or below
$799 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$473 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,677 Vol.
1%
18°C
$2,510 Vol.
6%
19°C
$2,457 Vol.
38%
20°C
$1,861 Vol.
45%
21°C
$2,559 Vol.
14%
22°C
$3,229 Vol.
2%
23°C
$944 Vol.
1%
24°C
$399 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$420 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a consensus maximum temperature around 19-20°C for Warsaw on May 1, reflecting trader sentiment with 20°C at 44.5% and 19°C at 35.5%, amid broken clouds and light northerly winds allowing moderate solar heating above the early May historical average of 17°C. Key differentiators include subtle variations in afternoon cloud cover—thinner breaks favoring 20°C via enhanced insolation—and boundary layer stability, with urban heat at Warsaw Chopin Airport potentially tipping the balance. Model spreads capture this uncertainty, as recent 00Z runs show slight upward adjustments from cooler IMGW outlooks earlier in the week. Final IMGW hourly guidance expected later today could refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ET
Volume
$16,875End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a consensus maximum temperature around 19-20°C for Warsaw on May 1, reflecting trader sentiment with 20°C at 44.5% and 19°C at 35.5%, amid broken clouds and light northerly winds allowing moderate solar heating above the early May historical average of 17°C. Key differentiators include subtle variations in afternoon cloud cover—thinner breaks favoring 20°C via enhanced insolation—and boundary layer stability, with urban heat at Warsaw Chopin Airport potentially tipping the balance. Model spreads capture this uncertainty, as recent 00Z runs show slight upward adjustments from cooler IMGW outlooks earlier in the week. Final IMGW hourly guidance expected later today could refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,875End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:35 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicate a consensus maximum temperature around 19-20°C for Warsaw on May 1, reflecting trader sentiment with 20°C at 44.5% and 19°C at 35.5%, amid broken clouds and light northerly winds allowing moderate solar heating above the early May historical average of 17°C. Key differentiators include subtle variations in afternoon cloud cover—thinner breaks favoring 20°C via enhanced insolation—and boundary layer stability, with urban heat at Warsaw Chopin Airport potentially tipping the balance. Model spreads capture this uncertainty, as recent 00Z runs show slight upward adjustments from cooler IMGW outlooks earlier in the week. Final IMGW hourly guidance expected later today could refine probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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