Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 19°C as the highest temperature in Shanghai on April 30, 2026, at virtually 100% implied probability, driven by real-time observational data from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a midday peak of 19°C after a morning high of 17.2°C. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts anticipating mild highs around 18–20°C under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a cooler spring air mass suppressing further warming. With sunset at approximately 6:30 PM and temperatures already declining amid reduced solar insolation, the odds reflect skin-in-the-game certainty. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon heat spike from clearing skies or downslope winds, but current model ensembles show no such signals; final daily max reports expected tomorrow morning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 30?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 30?
19°C 100.0%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$302,484 Vol.
$302,484 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
19°C
100%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 100.0%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$302,484 Vol.
$302,484 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
19°C
$40,360 Vol.
100%
20°C
$60,859 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$37,028 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$22,768 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$28,391 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 19°C as the highest temperature in Shanghai on April 30, 2026, at virtually 100% implied probability, driven by real-time observational data from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a midday peak of 19°C after a morning high of 17.2°C. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts anticipating mild highs around 18–20°C under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a cooler spring air mass suppressing further warming. With sunset at approximately 6:30 PM and temperatures already declining amid reduced solar insolation, the odds reflect skin-in-the-game certainty. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon heat spike from clearing skies or downslope winds, but current model ensembles show no such signals; final daily max reports expected tomorrow morning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ET
Volume
$302,484End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 19°C as the highest temperature in Shanghai on April 30, 2026, at virtually 100% implied probability, driven by real-time observational data from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a midday peak of 19°C after a morning high of 17.2°C. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts anticipating mild highs around 18–20°C under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a cooler spring air mass suppressing further warming. With sunset at approximately 6:30 PM and temperatures already declining amid reduced solar insolation, the odds reflect skin-in-the-game certainty. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon heat spike from clearing skies or downslope winds, but current model ensembles show no such signals; final daily max reports expected tomorrow morning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$302,484End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:59 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 19°C as the highest temperature in Shanghai on April 30, 2026, at virtually 100% implied probability, driven by real-time observational data from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a midday peak of 19°C after a morning high of 17.2°C. This aligns with China Meteorological Administration forecasts anticipating mild highs around 18–20°C under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and a cooler spring air mass suppressing further warming. With sunset at approximately 6:30 PM and temperatures already declining amid reduced solar insolation, the odds reflect skin-in-the-game certainty. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon heat spike from clearing skies or downslope winds, but current model ensembles show no such signals; final daily max reports expected tomorrow morning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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