Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts pinning NYC's May 1 high near 64°F under partly cloudy skies with early showers tapering off, driving the close split between 62-63°F (42.5%) and 64-65°F (34.8%) outcomes. Recent overnight fog and mist at Central Park, with lows near 48°F, indicate lingering post-frontal moisture from a departing low-pressure system, potentially capping diurnal heating via persistent low clouds, while northwest winds usher drier air. GFS and ECMWF ensembles show modest spread around 62-65°F due to varying boundary-layer mixing and clearing timing. Climatological May 1 highs average 67°F, but spring 2026's polar vortex remnants have kept anomalies near normal; watch 12z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution at Central Park.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 1?
62-63°F 36%
64-65°F 34.8%
60-61°F 15%
66-67°F 9.6%
NEW
$31,283 Vol.
NEW
$31,283 Vol.
May 1, 2026
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
36%
64-65°F
35%
66-67°F
10%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
<1%
72°F or higher
<1%
62-63°F 36%
64-65°F 34.8%
60-61°F 15%
66-67°F 9.6%
NEW
$31,283 Vol.
NEW
$31,283 Vol.
May 1, 2026
53°F or below
$2,107 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$5,142 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$5,699 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$3,793 Vol.
2%
60-61°F
$1,425 Vol.
15%
62-63°F
$2,082 Vol.
36%
64-65°F
$1,989 Vol.
35%
66-67°F
$1,587 Vol.
10%
68-69°F
$2,376 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$935 Vol.
<1%
72°F or higher
$5,482 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts pinning NYC's May 1 high near 64°F under partly cloudy skies with early showers tapering off, driving the close split between 62-63°F (42.5%) and 64-65°F (34.8%) outcomes. Recent overnight fog and mist at Central Park, with lows near 48°F, indicate lingering post-frontal moisture from a departing low-pressure system, potentially capping diurnal heating via persistent low clouds, while northwest winds usher drier air. GFS and ECMWF ensembles show modest spread around 62-65°F due to varying boundary-layer mixing and clearing timing. Climatological May 1 highs average 67°F, but spring 2026's polar vortex remnants have kept anomalies near normal; watch 12z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution at Central Park.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$31,283End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts pinning NYC's May 1 high near 64°F under partly cloudy skies with early showers tapering off, driving the close split between 62-63°F (42.5%) and 64-65°F (34.8%) outcomes. Recent overnight fog and mist at Central Park, with lows near 48°F, indicate lingering post-frontal moisture from a departing low-pressure system, potentially capping diurnal heating via persistent low clouds, while northwest winds usher drier air. GFS and ECMWF ensembles show modest spread around 62-65°F due to varying boundary-layer mixing and clearing timing. Climatological May 1 highs average 67°F, but spring 2026's polar vortex remnants have kept anomalies near normal; watch 12z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution at Central Park.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$31,283End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts pinning NYC's May 1 high near 64°F under partly cloudy skies with early showers tapering off, driving the close split between 62-63°F (42.5%) and 64-65°F (34.8%) outcomes. Recent overnight fog and mist at Central Park, with lows near 48°F, indicate lingering post-frontal moisture from a departing low-pressure system, potentially capping diurnal heating via persistent low clouds, while northwest winds usher drier air. GFS and ECMWF ensembles show modest spread around 62-65°F due to varying boundary-layer mixing and clearing timing. Climatological May 1 highs average 67°F, but spring 2026's polar vortex remnants have kept anomalies near normal; watch 12z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution at Central Park.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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