Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the ensemble mean from latest Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS forecast models, projecting London's Heathrow Airport high temperature near 18°C on May 3 under a developing high-pressure ridge fostering southerly winds and mild conditions. Updated runs in the past 24 hours have tightened probabilities around 17–19°C by showing consistent partial cloud cover, with minimal divergence in boundary layer forecasts; fuller sunshine could favor 19°C, while increased low-level moisture tips toward 17°C. Early May climatology averages 16–17°C, but recent warmer springs introduce modest upside risk. Monitor 12z model releases for potential shifts from frontal timing or convective activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on May 3?
Highest temperature in London on May 3?
18°C 30%
19°C 22%
17°C 21%
20°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
1%
17°C
21%
18°C
30%
19°C
22%
20°C
10%
21°C
3%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
18°C 30%
19°C 22%
17°C 21%
20°C 14%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
14°C or below
$25 Vol.
1%
15°C
$28 Vol.
3%
16°C
$568 Vol.
1%
17°C
$97 Vol.
21%
18°C
$235 Vol.
30%
19°C
$162 Vol.
22%
20°C
$24 Vol.
10%
21°C
$21 Vol.
3%
22°C
$61 Vol.
2%
23°C
$239 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$225 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the ensemble mean from latest Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS forecast models, projecting London's Heathrow Airport high temperature near 18°C on May 3 under a developing high-pressure ridge fostering southerly winds and mild conditions. Updated runs in the past 24 hours have tightened probabilities around 17–19°C by showing consistent partial cloud cover, with minimal divergence in boundary layer forecasts; fuller sunshine could favor 19°C, while increased low-level moisture tips toward 17°C. Early May climatology averages 16–17°C, but recent warmer springs introduce modest upside risk. Monitor 12z model releases for potential shifts from frontal timing or convective activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volume
$1,673End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the ensemble mean from latest Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS forecast models, projecting London's Heathrow Airport high temperature near 18°C on May 3 under a developing high-pressure ridge fostering southerly winds and mild conditions. Updated runs in the past 24 hours have tightened probabilities around 17–19°C by showing consistent partial cloud cover, with minimal divergence in boundary layer forecasts; fuller sunshine could favor 19°C, while increased low-level moisture tips toward 17°C. Early May climatology averages 16–17°C, but recent warmer springs introduce modest upside risk. Monitor 12z model releases for potential shifts from frontal timing or convective activity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,673End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely mirrors the ensemble mean from latest Met Office, ECMWF, and GFS forecast models, projecting London's Heathrow Airport high temperature near 18°C on May 3 under a developing high-pressure ridge fostering southerly winds and mild conditions. Updated runs in the past 24 hours have tightened probabilities around 17–19°C by showing consistent partial cloud cover, with minimal divergence in boundary layer forecasts; fuller sunshine could favor 19°C, while increased low-level moisture tips toward 17°C. Early May climatology averages 16–17°C, but recent warmer springs introduce modest upside risk. Monitor 12z model releases for potential shifts from frontal timing or convective activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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