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icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?

icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

Apr 30

May 1

May 2

26°C 45%

25°C 32%

27°C 24%

24°C 2.6%

Polymarket
NEW

$104,182 Vol.

26°C 45%

25°C 32%

27°C 24%

24°C 2.6%

Polymarket
NEW

$104,182 Vol.

19°C or below

$3,050 Vol.

<1%

20°C

$1,751 Vol.

<1%

21°C

$3,294 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$5,071 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$13,337 Vol.

1%

24°C

$14,244 Vol.

3%

25°C

$16,447 Vol.

32%

26°C

$7,248 Vol.

45%

27°C

$11,403 Vol.

24%

28°C

$17,407 Vol.

2%

29°C or higher

$18,411 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated April 30 at 23:20 HKT, projects a May 1 maximum temperature of 25°C under mainly cloudy skies with isolated morning and evening rain patches, moderate east-northeasterly winds force 4 (occasionally 5 offshore), and 70-90% humidity—conditions stemming from a persistent cloud band over Guangdong's coast ahead of an approaching trough. Trader consensus favors 26°C at 46.5% implied probability, reflecting historical tendencies for short-range forecasts to underestimate highs amid low rainfall odds (low PSR) and a seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures in early May, when climatological averages near 28°C. Current overnight readings around 23°C signal mild recovery potential; watch HKO's 11:30 HKT May 1 update for refined model guidance as solar heating interacts with cloud cover.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$104,182
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated April 30 at 23:20 HKT, projects a May 1 maximum temperature of 25°C under mainly cloudy skies with isolated morning and evening rain patches, moderate east-northeasterly winds force 4 (occasionally 5 offshore), and 70-90% humidity—conditions stemming from a persistent cloud band over Guangdong's coast ahead of an approaching trough. Trader consensus favors 26°C at 46.5% implied probability, reflecting historical tendencies for short-range forecasts to underestimate highs amid low rainfall odds (low PSR) and a seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures in early May, when climatological averages near 28°C. Current overnight readings around 23°C signal mild recovery potential; watch HKO's 11:30 HKT May 1 update for refined model guidance as solar heating interacts with cloud cover.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$104,182
End Date
May 1, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "26°C" at 45%, followed by "25°C" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?" has generated $104.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?" is "26°C" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25°C" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.