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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

Jun 12

Jun 13

Jun 14

Jun 15

Jun 12

Jun 13

Jun 14

Jun 15

29°C 49%

30°C 34%

31°C 12.0%

28°C 7%

Polymarket
NEW

$51,982 Vol.

29°C 49%

30°C 34%

31°C 12.0%

28°C 7%

Polymarket
NEW

$51,982 Vol.

23°C or below

$934 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$298 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$3,040 Vol.

<1%

26°C

$3,926 Vol.

<1%

27°C

$21,172 Vol.

<1%

28°C

$6,603 Vol.

7%

29°C

$5,187 Vol.

49%

30°C

$4,253 Vol.

34%

31°C

$3,938 Vol.

12%

32°C

$1,649 Vol.

1%

33°C or higher

$1,848 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory highlight thunderstorms and heavy showers expected on June 15, 2026, which suppress daytime solar heating through persistent cloud cover and evaporative cooling in the humid subtropical environment. This aligns with typical early-summer monsoon trough influences and supports the market's strong weighting toward a daily maximum of 29°C (49.0% implied probability) or 30°C (33.5%). Above-normal seasonal temperatures noted in the May HKO outlook provide background context, but short-term model consensus emphasizes wet conditions that historically cap highs near 28–30°C rather than allowing clearer-sky peaks above 31°C. Updated multi-model runs reinforce this range ahead of official daily observations used for resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,982
End Date
Jun 15, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory highlight thunderstorms and heavy showers expected on June 15, 2026, which suppress daytime solar heating through persistent cloud cover and evaporative cooling in the humid subtropical environment. This aligns with typical early-summer monsoon trough influences and supports the market's strong weighting toward a daily maximum of 29°C (49.0% implied probability) or 30°C (33.5%). Above-normal seasonal temperatures noted in the May HKO outlook provide background context, but short-term model consensus emphasizes wet conditions that historically cap highs near 28–30°C rather than allowing clearer-sky peaks above 31°C. Updated multi-model runs reinforce this range ahead of official daily observations used for resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,982
End Date
Jun 15, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "29°C" at 49%, followed by "30°C" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?" has generated $52K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?" is "29°C" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30°C" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.