National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 49°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport—the official observing site—on May 1, aligning with the 91.5% market-implied probability for 51°F or below and reflecting strong model consensus from recent GFS and ECMWF runs. This positioning stems from a post-cold frontal setup with high pressure building over the Great Lakes, driving persistent north-northwest winds at 10-15 mph that advect a cool Canadian air mass, well below the 65°F climatological normal. Mostly sunny conditions offer limited solar heating amid the chill. Trader sentiment, backed by real capital, prices in low uncertainty, though scenarios like reduced cloudiness or a stalled boundary permitting southerly flow could push peaks toward 52-53°F; updated hourly guidance and observations through afternoon will refine this before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on May 1?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 1?
51°F or below 92%
52-53°F 6%
54-55°F 1.5%
56-57°F 1.0%
NEW
$38,260 Vol.
NEW
$38,260 Vol.
May 1, 2026
51°F or below
92%
52-53°F
6%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70°F or higher
<1%
51°F or below 92%
52-53°F 6%
54-55°F 1.5%
56-57°F 1.0%
NEW
$38,260 Vol.
NEW
$38,260 Vol.
May 1, 2026
51°F or below
$6,469 Vol.
92%
52-53°F
$3,616 Vol.
6%
54-55°F
$3,602 Vol.
2%
56-57°F
$2,712 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$6,030 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$4,013 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$3,316 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$3,319 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$2,160 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$2,332 Vol.
<1%
70°F or higher
$1,991 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 49°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport—the official observing site—on May 1, aligning with the 91.5% market-implied probability for 51°F or below and reflecting strong model consensus from recent GFS and ECMWF runs. This positioning stems from a post-cold frontal setup with high pressure building over the Great Lakes, driving persistent north-northwest winds at 10-15 mph that advect a cool Canadian air mass, well below the 65°F climatological normal. Mostly sunny conditions offer limited solar heating amid the chill. Trader sentiment, backed by real capital, prices in low uncertainty, though scenarios like reduced cloudiness or a stalled boundary permitting southerly flow could push peaks toward 52-53°F; updated hourly guidance and observations through afternoon will refine this before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$38,260End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 49°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport—the official observing site—on May 1, aligning with the 91.5% market-implied probability for 51°F or below and reflecting strong model consensus from recent GFS and ECMWF runs. This positioning stems from a post-cold frontal setup with high pressure building over the Great Lakes, driving persistent north-northwest winds at 10-15 mph that advect a cool Canadian air mass, well below the 65°F climatological normal. Mostly sunny conditions offer limited solar heating amid the chill. Trader sentiment, backed by real capital, prices in low uncertainty, though scenarios like reduced cloudiness or a stalled boundary permitting southerly flow could push peaks toward 52-53°F; updated hourly guidance and observations through afternoon will refine this before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$38,260End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 49°F at Chicago O'Hare International Airport—the official observing site—on May 1, aligning with the 91.5% market-implied probability for 51°F or below and reflecting strong model consensus from recent GFS and ECMWF runs. This positioning stems from a post-cold frontal setup with high pressure building over the Great Lakes, driving persistent north-northwest winds at 10-15 mph that advect a cool Canadian air mass, well below the 65°F climatological normal. Mostly sunny conditions offer limited solar heating amid the chill. Trader sentiment, backed by real capital, prices in low uncertainty, though scenarios like reduced cloudiness or a stalled boundary permitting southerly flow could push peaks toward 52-53°F; updated hourly guidance and observations through afternoon will refine this before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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