Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast clustering for Beijing's highest temperature on May 3, with models from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources like AccuWeather projecting daytime highs of 23-24°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeast breezes. This positioning stems from recent spring patterns, including variable cold air intrusions cooling early May averages from the monthly norm of 26-27°C, as seen in yesterday's overcast conditions limiting insolation. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover variability—thicker overcast could cap peaks at 21-22°C, while clearer skies boost to 24°C—and urban heat island effects at the official Beijing Capital International Airport station. Updated model runs expected today may refine these market-implied odds amid inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 3?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 3?
22°C 22%
23°C 22%
24°C 17%
21°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
3%
20°C
9%
21°C
15%
22°C
22%
23°C
22%
24°C
17%
25°C
4%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
22°C 22%
23°C 22%
24°C 17%
21°C 15%
NEW
NEW
May 3, 2026
17°C or below
$26 Vol.
1%
18°C
$71 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
3%
20°C
$21 Vol.
9%
21°C
$26 Vol.
15%
22°C
$84 Vol.
22%
23°C
$20 Vol.
22%
24°C
$28 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C
$137 Vol.
3%
27°C or higher
$247 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast clustering for Beijing's highest temperature on May 3, with models from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources like AccuWeather projecting daytime highs of 23-24°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeast breezes. This positioning stems from recent spring patterns, including variable cold air intrusions cooling early May averages from the monthly norm of 26-27°C, as seen in yesterday's overcast conditions limiting insolation. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover variability—thicker overcast could cap peaks at 21-22°C, while clearer skies boost to 24°C—and urban heat island effects at the official Beijing Capital International Airport station. Updated model runs expected today may refine these market-implied odds amid inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$661End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast clustering for Beijing's highest temperature on May 3, with models from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources like AccuWeather projecting daytime highs of 23-24°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeast breezes. This positioning stems from recent spring patterns, including variable cold air intrusions cooling early May averages from the monthly norm of 26-27°C, as seen in yesterday's overcast conditions limiting insolation. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover variability—thicker overcast could cap peaks at 21-22°C, while clearer skies boost to 24°C—and urban heat island effects at the official Beijing Capital International Airport station. Updated model runs expected today may refine these market-implied odds amid inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$661End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast clustering for Beijing's highest temperature on May 3, with models from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources like AccuWeather projecting daytime highs of 23-24°C under partly cloudy skies and light northeast breezes. This positioning stems from recent spring patterns, including variable cold air intrusions cooling early May averages from the monthly norm of 26-27°C, as seen in yesterday's overcast conditions limiting insolation. Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover variability—thicker overcast could cap peaks at 21-22°C, while clearer skies boost to 24°C—and urban heat island effects at the official Beijing Capital International Airport station. Updated model runs expected today may refine these market-implied odds amid inherent short-term forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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