Skip to main content
icon for FL-19 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-19 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Catalina Lauf 41%

Madison Cawthorn 20.0%

Jim Schwartzel 13.2%

Jim Oberweis 10.2%

Polymarket

$22,311 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 41%

Madison Cawthorn 20.0%

Jim Schwartzel 13.2%

Jim Oberweis 10.2%

Polymarket

$22,311 Vol.

Catalina Lauf

$16,496 Vol.

41%

Madison Cawthorn

$1,312 Vol.

20%

Jim Schwartzel

$439 Vol.

13%

Jim Oberweis

$2,542 Vol.

10%

Spencer Roach

$656 Vol.

7%

Bob Rommel

$865 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the frontrunner at 40.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, driven by her strong first-quarter fundraising haul exceeding $400,000, endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, and Trump administration ties appealing to base voters in this solidly Republican district. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid, features a crowded field that thinned in March when Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno declined to run, consolidating support behind Lauf. Madison Cawthorn draws 19.4% from prior congressional experience despite past controversies, while Jim Schwartzel's 16.3% reflects local business backing; no recent polls exist, leaving odds sensitive to endorsements or debates ahead of early voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,311
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the frontrunner at 40.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, driven by her strong first-quarter fundraising haul exceeding $400,000, endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, and Trump administration ties appealing to base voters in this solidly Republican district. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid, features a crowded field that thinned in March when Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno declined to run, consolidating support behind Lauf. Madison Cawthorn draws 19.4% from prior congressional experience despite past controversies, while Jim Schwartzel's 16.3% reflects local business backing; no recent polls exist, leaving odds sensitive to endorsements or debates ahead of early voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,311
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

37%
icon for Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

65%
icon for Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?

Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?

90%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Catalina Lauf" at 41%, followed by "Madison Cawthorn" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $22.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is "Catalina Lauf" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Madison Cawthorn" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.