Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 40-64 tweets from May 9-11 at 55.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent posting velocity of 7-20 per day in early May—including a May 1 spike to 68 amid high-visibility topics, followed by subdued activity like 13 on May 4—positioning this range as a realistic baseline for the weekend period. The <40 outcome at 37.5% gains traction from quieter stretches, such as May 3's seven posts, amid no major catalysts like Tesla announcements or political firestorms in the past 48 hours. Today's three confirmed replies on cultural issues (crime surges, immigration empathy) signal steady engagement, but breaking news on SpaceX launches or X platform updates could swing volume higher; traders watch for weekend momentum shifts in this closely contested market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 52%
<40 40%
65-89 8%
90-114 1.6%
$199,495 Vol.
$199,495 Vol.
May 11, 2026
<40
40%
40-64
52%
65-89
8%
90-114
2%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 52%
<40 40%
65-89 8%
90-114 1.6%
$199,495 Vol.
$199,495 Vol.
May 11, 2026
<40
$28,523 Vol.
40%
40-64
$16,789 Vol.
52%
65-89
$17,814 Vol.
8%
90-114
$53,643 Vol.
2%
115-139
$22,044 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$20,781 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$14,803 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$11,763 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$10,550 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,458 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 40-64 tweets from May 9-11 at 55.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent posting velocity of 7-20 per day in early May—including a May 1 spike to 68 amid high-visibility topics, followed by subdued activity like 13 on May 4—positioning this range as a realistic baseline for the weekend period. The <40 outcome at 37.5% gains traction from quieter stretches, such as May 3's seven posts, amid no major catalysts like Tesla announcements or political firestorms in the past 48 hours. Today's three confirmed replies on cultural issues (crime surges, immigration empathy) signal steady engagement, but breaking news on SpaceX launches or X platform updates could swing volume higher; traders watch for weekend momentum shifts in this closely contested market.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$199,495End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 40-64 tweets from May 9-11 at 55.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent posting velocity of 7-20 per day in early May—including a May 1 spike to 68 amid high-visibility topics, followed by subdued activity like 13 on May 4—positioning this range as a realistic baseline for the weekend period. The <40 outcome at 37.5% gains traction from quieter stretches, such as May 3's seven posts, amid no major catalysts like Tesla announcements or political firestorms in the past 48 hours. Today's three confirmed replies on cultural issues (crime surges, immigration empathy) signal steady engagement, but breaking news on SpaceX launches or X platform updates could swing volume higher; traders watch for weekend momentum shifts in this closely contested market.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$199,495End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 40-64 tweets from May 9-11 at 55.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent posting velocity of 7-20 per day in early May—including a May 1 spike to 68 amid high-visibility topics, followed by subdued activity like 13 on May 4—positioning this range as a realistic baseline for the weekend period. The <40 outcome at 37.5% gains traction from quieter stretches, such as May 3's seven posts, amid no major catalysts like Tesla announcements or political firestorms in the past 48 hours. Today's three confirmed replies on cultural issues (crime surges, immigration empathy) signal steady engagement, but breaking news on SpaceX launches or X platform updates could swing volume higher; traders watch for weekend momentum shifts in this closely contested market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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