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icon for Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
Politics·Uap

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

icon for Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
Politics·Uap

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

Dec 31

Dec 31

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$6,148 Vol.

Polymarket

May 15

$5,708 Vol.

39%

May 31

$121 Vol.

52%

December 31

$319 Vol.

91%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration marked a major milestone today as the Department of War released the first tranche of declassified unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) files on war.gov/ufo, including never-before-seen images, videos, Apollo mission transcripts, and pilot encounter reports. This follows President Trump's February 2026 directive to agencies to identify and declassify UFO-related documents, with teasers of "very interesting" materials shared publicly in mid-April. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth oversaw the effort, emphasizing transparency amid ongoing congressional interest in UAP disclosures. Traders should monitor for additional batches, as officials indicated more releases soon, potentially impacting markets tied to specific declassification timelines. No further scheduled events are confirmed, but executive actions could accelerate future unveilings.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components.

Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.

The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$6,148
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration marked a major milestone today as the Department of War released the first tranche of declassified unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) files on war.gov/ufo, including never-before-seen images, videos, Apollo mission transcripts, and pilot encounter reports. This follows President Trump's February 2026 directive to agencies to identify and declassify UFO-related documents, with teasers of "very interesting" materials shared publicly in mid-April. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth oversaw the effort, emphasizing transparency amid ongoing congressional interest in UAP disclosures. Traders should monitor for additional batches, as officials indicated more releases soon, potentially impacting markets tied to specific declassification timelines. No further scheduled events are confirmed, but executive actions could accelerate future unveilings.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components.

Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count.

The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$6,148
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 91%, followed by "May 31" at 52%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?" is "December 31" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 31" at 52%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.