Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 1000–1200 tweets for Elon Musk's May 2026 X activity, with the 1160–1199 range leading at 13.3% implied probability, reflecting his sustained high-volume posting pattern averaging 35–38 daily in recent months like March's ~1200 total. April's pace tracks toward 1050 amid the ongoing Musk-OpenAI trial that began April 27—sparking spikes like 38 posts that day but dipping to a 26 daily average over the past week—creating uncertainty in a closely contested field. Key differentiators include trial resolution potentially freeing time for viral political or Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, or election buzz, against risks of further slowdowns; daily volatility and external events will dictate swings as May unfolds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1160-1199 12.6%
1080-1119 10.0%
1120-1159 8.4%
1040-1079 8.4%
$476,416 Vol.
$476,416 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
1%
640-659
1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760-779
1%
780-799
2%
800-839
2%
840-879
3%
880-919
4%
920-959
4%
960-999
8%
1000-1039
7%
1040-1079
8%
1080-1119
10%
1120-1159
8%
1160-1199
13%
1200-1239
7%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
5%
1320-1359
4%
1360-1399
3%
1400-1439
3%
1440-1479
2%
1480-1519
2%
1520-1559
1%
1560-1599
1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
1160-1199 12.6%
1080-1119 10.0%
1120-1159 8.4%
1040-1079 8.4%
$476,416 Vol.
$476,416 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
1%
640-659
1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760-779
1%
780-799
2%
800-839
2%
840-879
3%
880-919
4%
920-959
4%
960-999
8%
1000-1039
7%
1040-1079
8%
1080-1119
10%
1120-1159
8%
1160-1199
13%
1200-1239
7%
1240-1279
7%
1280-1319
5%
1320-1359
4%
1360-1399
3%
1400-1439
3%
1440-1479
2%
1480-1519
2%
1520-1559
1%
1560-1599
1%
1600-1679
<1%
1680-1759
<1%
1760-1839
<1%
1840-1919
1%
1920-1999
<1%
2000+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 1000–1200 tweets for Elon Musk's May 2026 X activity, with the 1160–1199 range leading at 13.3% implied probability, reflecting his sustained high-volume posting pattern averaging 35–38 daily in recent months like March's ~1200 total. April's pace tracks toward 1050 amid the ongoing Musk-OpenAI trial that began April 27—sparking spikes like 38 posts that day but dipping to a 26 daily average over the past week—creating uncertainty in a closely contested field. Key differentiators include trial resolution potentially freeing time for viral political or Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, or election buzz, against risks of further slowdowns; daily volatility and external events will dictate swings as May unfolds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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