Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "Michael" exceeding $38 million in its third domestic weekend at 52.5% implied probability, closely trailed by the $35-38 million range at 37.4%, reflecting optimism from the film's resilient second-weekend hold of $54 million—a modest 44% drop despite scathing critical reviews and competition from "The Devil Wears Prada 2"'s $77 million debut. Strong audience scores and word-of-mouth have fueled impressive legs, pushing domestic cume past $150 million entering the frame, with Jaafar Jackson's portrayal earning praise amid the biopic's record-shattering $97 million opening. Projections hover around $35-40 million amid new releases like "Mortal Kombat II," but fan-driven turnout could sustain momentum toward a $500 million global milestone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Michael" 3rd Weekend Box Office
"Michael" 3rd Weekend Box Office
>38m 53.0%
35-38m 32.8%
32-35m 8.8%
<32m 1.6%
$174,637 Vol.
$174,637 Vol.
May 11, 2026
<32m
2%
32-35m
9%
35-38m
33%
>38m
53%
>38m 53.0%
35-38m 32.8%
32-35m 8.8%
<32m 1.6%
$174,637 Vol.
$174,637 Vol.
May 11, 2026
<32m
$43,971 Vol.
2%
32-35m
$41,443 Vol.
9%
35-38m
$26,538 Vol.
33%
>38m
$62,787 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "Michael" exceeding $38 million in its third domestic weekend at 52.5% implied probability, closely trailed by the $35-38 million range at 37.4%, reflecting optimism from the film's resilient second-weekend hold of $54 million—a modest 44% drop despite scathing critical reviews and competition from "The Devil Wears Prada 2"'s $77 million debut. Strong audience scores and word-of-mouth have fueled impressive legs, pushing domestic cume past $150 million entering the frame, with Jaafar Jackson's portrayal earning praise amid the biopic's record-shattering $97 million opening. Projections hover around $35-40 million amid new releases like "Mortal Kombat II," but fan-driven turnout could sustain momentum toward a $500 million global milestone.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ET
Volume
$174,637End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "Michael" exceeding $38 million in its third domestic weekend at 52.5% implied probability, closely trailed by the $35-38 million range at 37.4%, reflecting optimism from the film's resilient second-weekend hold of $54 million—a modest 44% drop despite scathing critical reviews and competition from "The Devil Wears Prada 2"'s $77 million debut. Strong audience scores and word-of-mouth have fueled impressive legs, pushing domestic cume past $150 million entering the frame, with Jaafar Jackson's portrayal earning praise amid the biopic's record-shattering $97 million opening. Projections hover around $35-40 million amid new releases like "Mortal Kombat II," but fan-driven turnout could sustain momentum toward a $500 million global milestone.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$174,637End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "Michael" exceeding $38 million in its third domestic weekend at 52.5% implied probability, closely trailed by the $35-38 million range at 37.4%, reflecting optimism from the film's resilient second-weekend hold of $54 million—a modest 44% drop despite scathing critical reviews and competition from "The Devil Wears Prada 2"'s $77 million debut. Strong audience scores and word-of-mouth have fueled impressive legs, pushing domestic cume past $150 million entering the frame, with Jaafar Jackson's portrayal earning praise amid the biopic's record-shattering $97 million opening. Projections hover around $35-40 million amid new releases like "Mortal Kombat II," but fan-driven turnout could sustain momentum toward a $500 million global milestone.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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