Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 160-219 tweets for Elon Musk from May 8-15, with 160-179 leading at 17.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent pace of 18-23 posts per day tracked via X data aggregators for the prior week (April 28-May 5, totaling ~133 posts over six days). This moderate volume stems from steady engagement on Tesla production updates, SpaceX Starlink rollouts, and political commentary, without the extreme spikes seen in past high-intensity periods like early 2025 election fervor (up to 60-100 daily). Competitive dynamics hinge on unpredictable catalysts—potential Tesla earnings previews, Starlink deals, or viral X moments—that could accelerate posting; absent major news, traders anticipate baseline continuity amid his variable social media habits. Chart lock nears May 16, amplifying sensitivity to late-week surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated160-179 17%
180-199 16%
200-219 15%
140-159 13%
$67,010 Vol.
$67,010 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
3%
120-139
6%
140-159
13%
160-179
17%
180-199
16%
200-219
15%
220-239
12%
240-259
9%
260-279
5%
280-299
4%
300-319
3%
320-339
3%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 17%
180-199 16%
200-219 15%
140-159 13%
$67,010 Vol.
$67,010 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
3%
120-139
6%
140-159
13%
160-179
17%
180-199
16%
200-219
15%
220-239
12%
240-259
9%
260-279
5%
280-299
4%
300-319
3%
320-339
3%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 160-219 tweets for Elon Musk from May 8-15, with 160-179 leading at 17.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent pace of 18-23 posts per day tracked via X data aggregators for the prior week (April 28-May 5, totaling ~133 posts over six days). This moderate volume stems from steady engagement on Tesla production updates, SpaceX Starlink rollouts, and political commentary, without the extreme spikes seen in past high-intensity periods like early 2025 election fervor (up to 60-100 daily). Competitive dynamics hinge on unpredictable catalysts—potential Tesla earnings previews, Starlink deals, or viral X moments—that could accelerate posting; absent major news, traders anticipate baseline continuity amid his variable social media habits. Chart lock nears May 16, amplifying sensitivity to late-week surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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