Media coverage highlights Kamala Harris as the frontrunner in early 2028 Democratic primary polls, reinforcing her status as a leading candidate

Kamala Harris rises to 8%4%

Polls showing Harris leading other Democratic hopefuls likely contributed to the market

Kamala Harris posts video on gas

Kamala Harris rises to 8%4%

This public engagement on a key economic issue and speculation about her 2028 ambitions corresponded with a modest

Sen. Mark Kelly remains undecided on 2028 presidential run amid ongoing speculation

Mark Kelly rises to 3%1%

Kelly publicly stated he had not yet decided whether to run, maintaining ambiguity and limiting market enthusiasm, reflected in a slight.

Analysts and insiders increasingly view Ocasio-Cortez as a serious contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination amid a turbulent political environment, but she remains

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%

Analysts and insiders increasingly view Ocasio-Cortez as a serious contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination amid a turbulent political environment, but she remains noncommittal, keeping

Beshear intensifies attacks on likely Republican opponent JD Vance, positioning himself as the Democratic alternative and increasing media attention; despite this, his market

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Beshear intensifies attacks on likely Republican opponent JD Vance, positioning himself as the Democratic alternative and increasing media attention; despite this, his market

California Governor Gavin Newsom mandates personal finance classes for high schoolers and signs executive order to close gender wealth gap, showcasing policy leadership

Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%

These policy initiatives highlighted Newsom’s governance record and appeal to progressive and moderate Democrats, supporting a slight market uptick.

Gavin Newsom’s book tour stop in New Hampshire, an early primary state, sparks increased speculation about his 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%

Newsom’s visit to a key primary state for a book event was widely interpreted as laying groundwork for a presidential campaign, modestly boosting his market odds.

Beshear delivers a speech at the Center for American Progress highlighting his faith-driven approach to healing the country and previews his upcoming book, signaling preparation

Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%

Beshear delivers a speech at the Center for American Progress highlighting his faith-driven approach to healing the country and previews his upcoming book, signaling preparation for a potential campaign and raising his profile among progressives

Beshear publicly addresses speculation about a 2028 presidential run during a CNN interview, emphasizing focus on his current governorship but not ruling out a future run;

this clarifies his intentions but lacks a firm commitment, coinciding with

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi publicly endorses and commits to boosting Gavin Newsom’s 2028 presidential run

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%2%

Pelosi’s endorsement and active support added significant establishment backing to Newsom’s potential campaign, positively influencing market sentiment.

Ossoff appears at a Georgia rally as the No.

3 favorite on Kalshi’s 2028 Democratic‑nominee list His campaign event in Atlanta and the market’s ranking of him third behind other contenders revived modest interest, nudging the.

Ossoff rallies supporters in Georgia amid ongoing speculation about his 2028 prospects, though he reiterates no formal campaign plans

Jon Ossoff rises to 6%2%

His active campaigning and Southern Senate incumbency helped improve market sentiment slightly, though he maintained no official candidacy.

Gavin Newsom speaks at World Economic Forum in Davos, sharply criticizing global leaders’ diplomacy and mocking Trump supporters with “kneepads” fundraising merchandise

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

Newsom’s high-profile international appearance and provocative rhetoric kept him in the spotlight, though mixed reactions may have limited.

Ocasio-Cortez attends the Munich Security Conference but explicitly states she is not running for president, tempering speculation and stabilizing her market

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 11%3%

Ocasio-Cortez attends the Munich Security Conference but explicitly states she is not running for president, tempering speculation and stabilizing her market

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announces administrative measures against Kelly, including retirement pay reduction

Mark Kelly dips to 2%2%

The Pentagon's move to discipline Kelly for his participation in the controversial video, including reducing his retirement benefits, intensified legal battles and uncertainty about his campaign prospects, leading to a.

Ossoff delivers a scathing speech attacking Trump and the "Mar-a-Lago Mafia," briefly boosting his profile as a potential 2028 contender

Jon Ossoff rises to 5%2%

The viral speech raised his visibility and led to some speculation about a future presidential run, causing a modest market uptick.

A poll by The Hill shows Ocasio-Cortez leading among young voters, reinforcing her appeal to a key demographic and causing a modest

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 14%3%

A poll by The Hill shows Ocasio-Cortez leading among young voters, reinforcing her appeal to a key demographic and causing a modest

Actress Halle Berry publicly criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause care bill, challenging his appeal to women voters

Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%

Berry’s high-profile rebuke over Newsom’s veto of a women’s health bill sparked negative media attention, potentially dampening enthusiasm among some Democratic voters.

CNN poll shows Gavin Newsom leading Democratic preferences for 2028 nomination at 6%, ahead of other Democrats

Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%

Early polling data indicated Newsom as the top Democratic choice, reinforcing market confidence in his frontrunner status despite no formal campaign announcement.

Mark Kelly raises over $12.5 million in Q4 2025, boosting his national profile

Mark Kelly rises to 4%2%

Kelly's strong fundraising haul and increased visibility, partly fueled by Trump's attacks, elevated his standing as a potential 2028 contender, causing a modest.

Pentagon announces investigation into Mark Kelly over "illegal orders" video amid Trump attacks

Following President Trump's public accusations of sedition against Kelly and other Democrats for a video urging military personnel to refuse illegal orders, the Department of Defense announced an investigation into Kelly, raising legal and political risks for his potential candidacy.

Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50 wins in California, strengthening Democratic control and his presidential contender status

Gavin Newsom rises to 39%4%

The approval of Prop 50, which shifted redistricting power to Democrats, was hailed by Newsom as a major political victory, boosting his stature as a top 2028 contender ahead of the midterms.

Gavin Newsom states he will give “serious thought” to a 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms in CBS News interview

Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%

Newsom openly acknowledged considering a presidential bid post-2026, fueling market optimism and speculation about his candidacy.

Media scrutiny intensifies over Kamala Harris’s “very sharp turn” on energy policy, highlighting her shift from progressive climate positions to supporting record domestic oil production

This perceived flip-flop on energy and climate policy likely contributed to market skepticism about her consistency and electability, coinciding with the lowest

Kamala Harris redesignates her campaign account as a PAC, signaling her own 2028 ambitions and intensifying competition within the Democratic field, limiting Ocasio-Cortez's

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 11%1%

Kamala Harris redesignates her campaign account as a PAC, signaling her own 2028 ambitions and intensifying competition within the Democratic field, limiting Ocasio-Cortez's momentum

Kamala Harris makes first pro-crypto statement at Wall Street fundraiser, endorsing innovation in AI and digital assets while promising consumer protections

Her pro-technology stance at this fundraiser signaled a modernizing campaign approach, but it did not significantly boost market confidence at the time.

Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for a 2028 presidential run, raising her profile and briefly increasing market confidence

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 12%3%

Bernie Sanders publicly endorses Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for a 2028 presidential run, raising her profile and briefly increasing market confidence

Jon Ossoff publicly states he has "zero interest" in running for president in 2028 during an interview with Jen Psaki

Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%

Ossoff's clear denial of presidential ambitions dampened market expectations, solidifying the low probability of his nomination despite speculation.

Sen. Mark Kelly declines to confirm 2028 presidential run, signaling uncertainty

Mark Kelly plunges to 1%49%

Kelly gave a noncommittal answer when asked on CNN if he was considering a 2028 presidential bid, despite campaigning in key battleground states Michigan and Pennsylvania, which caused a sharp drop in market confidence.

Reports highlight worsening economic conditions in California, boosting Gavin Newsom's chances for the Democratic nomination and overshadowing Ocasio-Cortez's prospects

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%

Reports highlight worsening economic conditions in California, boosting Gavin Newsom's chances for the Democratic nomination and overshadowing Ocasio-Cortez's prospects

Initial market optimism with Beshear at 51% likely reflected early speculation on his strong governorship and crossover appeal in a red state, but no formal campaign announcement

Andy Beshear rises to 51%1%

Initial market optimism with Beshear at 51% likely reflected early speculation on his strong governorship and crossover appeal in a red state, but no formal campaign announcement or national traction yet

Jon Ossoff raises $10 million in fundraising quarter, showing strong campaign resources for his Senate reelection bid but no presidential campaign declared

Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%

Despite strong fundraising, Ossoff's focus remained on his Senate race, not a presidential run, leading to a sharp market drop from initial high optimism.

Kamala Harris delivers keynote speech at APIAVote’s 2024 Presidential Town Hall in Philadelphia, engaging Asian American voters and reinforcing her visibility as a Democratic leader

Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%

This event marked a high-profile engagement with a key Democratic constituency shortly after the 2024 election, but the market

Gavin Newsom warns of Donald Trump’s potential 2028 third term run amid California redistricting battle

Gavin Newsom jumps to 31%13%

Newsom publicly accused Trump of attempting to rig elections for a third term and announced a special California election to counter GOP redistricting efforts, raising his national profile and energizing speculation about his presidential ambitions.

Ossoff says he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential run, urging Democrats to focus on midterms The senator’s blunt dismissal of any 2028 ambitions on MS NOW sparked a sharp

Ossoff says he has “zero interest” in a 2028 presidential run, urging Democrats to focus on midterms The senator’s blunt dismissal of any 2028 ambitions on MS NOW sparked a sharp drop in his nomination odds, driving the market down from its July 11 peak .