Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs holds an early polling advantage in head-to-head matchups for the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, leading likely Republican nominee Andy Biggs by roughly four points in recent surveys and wider margins against other GOP primary contenders. Arizona’s Republican primary on July 21 features Biggs consolidating support ahead of rivals such as David Schweikert, potentially producing a more polarized general-election opponent. Ratings from nonpartisan analysts range from toss-up to lean Democratic, reflecting Hobbs’s narrow 2022 victory, the state’s mixed 2024 presidential results, and limited major developments since the start of the cycle that would shift the competitive balance. Trader consensus assigns Democrats an implied probability near 78 percent, consistent with these baseline dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArizona Governor Election Winner
Arizona Governor Election Winner
$43,741 Vol.
$43,741 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
79%
Republican
22%
$43,741 Vol.
$43,741 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$23,806 Vol.
79%
Republican
$19,936 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs holds an early polling advantage in head-to-head matchups for the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, leading likely Republican nominee Andy Biggs by roughly four points in recent surveys and wider margins against other GOP primary contenders. Arizona’s Republican primary on July 21 features Biggs consolidating support ahead of rivals such as David Schweikert, potentially producing a more polarized general-election opponent. Ratings from nonpartisan analysts range from toss-up to lean Democratic, reflecting Hobbs’s narrow 2022 victory, the state’s mixed 2024 presidential results, and limited major developments since the start of the cycle that would shift the competitive balance. Trader consensus assigns Democrats an implied probability near 78 percent, consistent with these baseline dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$43,741End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs holds an early polling advantage in head-to-head matchups for the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, leading likely Republican nominee Andy Biggs by roughly four points in recent surveys and wider margins against other GOP primary contenders. Arizona’s Republican primary on July 21 features Biggs consolidating support ahead of rivals such as David Schweikert, potentially producing a more polarized general-election opponent. Ratings from nonpartisan analysts range from toss-up to lean Democratic, reflecting Hobbs’s narrow 2022 victory, the state’s mixed 2024 presidential results, and limited major developments since the start of the cycle that would shift the competitive balance. Trader consensus assigns Democrats an implied probability near 78 percent, consistent with these baseline dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$43,741End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs holds an early polling advantage in head-to-head matchups for the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, leading likely Republican nominee Andy Biggs by roughly four points in recent surveys and wider margins against other GOP primary contenders. Arizona’s Republican primary on July 21 features Biggs consolidating support ahead of rivals such as David Schweikert, potentially producing a more polarized general-election opponent. Ratings from nonpartisan analysts range from toss-up to lean Democratic, reflecting Hobbs’s narrow 2022 victory, the state’s mixed 2024 presidential results, and limited major developments since the start of the cycle that would shift the competitive balance. Trader consensus assigns Democrats an implied probability near 78 percent, consistent with these baseline dynamics ahead of the November 3 contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions