Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97% implied probability against an Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement amid robust private funding activity. Anthropic closed a landmark $30 billion Series G round in February at a $380 billion post-money valuation, and as of April 29, it is in early talks for another $50 billion raise potentially exceeding $900 billion—signaling ample liquidity without public market pressures. This aligns with CEO Dario Amodei's January comments prioritizing product development over going public, while banker pitches point to a possible Q4 2026 debut. Realistic challenges include an unexpected S-1 filing accelerated by regulatory fast-tracking or competitive urgency from OpenAI, though the typical 3-6 month IPO timeline leaves scant room before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 97.0%
600B+ 2.1%
<100B <1%
400–600B <1%
$1,111,829 Vol.
$1,111,829 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
1%
100–200B
<1%
200–300B
<1%
300–400B
<1%
400–600B
<1%
600B+
2%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
97%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 97.0%
600B+ 2.1%
<100B <1%
400–600B <1%
$1,111,829 Vol.
$1,111,829 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$224,772 Vol.
1%
100–200B
$79,261 Vol.
<1%
200–300B
$134,808 Vol.
<1%
300–400B
$83,145 Vol.
<1%
400–600B
$132,658 Vol.
<1%
600B+
$264,190 Vol.
2%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$193,085 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97% implied probability against an Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement amid robust private funding activity. Anthropic closed a landmark $30 billion Series G round in February at a $380 billion post-money valuation, and as of April 29, it is in early talks for another $50 billion raise potentially exceeding $900 billion—signaling ample liquidity without public market pressures. This aligns with CEO Dario Amodei's January comments prioritizing product development over going public, while banker pitches point to a possible Q4 2026 debut. Realistic challenges include an unexpected S-1 filing accelerated by regulatory fast-tracking or competitive urgency from OpenAI, though the typical 3-6 month IPO timeline leaves scant room before resolution.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,111,829End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97% implied probability against an Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement amid robust private funding activity. Anthropic closed a landmark $30 billion Series G round in February at a $380 billion post-money valuation, and as of April 29, it is in early talks for another $50 billion raise potentially exceeding $900 billion—signaling ample liquidity without public market pressures. This aligns with CEO Dario Amodei's January comments prioritizing product development over going public, while banker pitches point to a possible Q4 2026 debut. Realistic challenges include an unexpected S-1 filing accelerated by regulatory fast-tracking or competitive urgency from OpenAI, though the typical 3-6 month IPO timeline leaves scant room before resolution.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,111,829End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 97% implied probability against an Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcement amid robust private funding activity. Anthropic closed a landmark $30 billion Series G round in February at a $380 billion post-money valuation, and as of April 29, it is in early talks for another $50 billion raise potentially exceeding $900 billion—signaling ample liquidity without public market pressures. This aligns with CEO Dario Amodei's January comments prioritizing product development over going public, while banker pitches point to a possible Q4 2026 debut. Realistic challenges include an unexpected S-1 filing accelerated by regulatory fast-tracking or competitive urgency from OpenAI, though the typical 3-6 month IPO timeline leaves scant room before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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