Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 66.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by Anthropic's aggressive timeline targeting as early as October 2026 amid banker discussions with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, contrasted with OpenAI's internal discord where CFO Sarah Friar has flagged revenue shortfalls, massive compute commitments projecting $121 billion in 2028 spending, and sidelining from key planning. Anthropic's enterprise momentum in coding tools and ARR growth has propelled its private valuation past OpenAI's $852 billion to near $900 billion, with recent $50 billion funding talks and faster path to cash positivity bolstering first-mover positioning. Watch for S-1 filings and Q2 earnings previews as pivotal catalysts in this AI lab IPO race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
$53,284 Vol.
$53,284 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Anthropic
$53,284 Vol.
$53,284 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 66.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by Anthropic's aggressive timeline targeting as early as October 2026 amid banker discussions with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, contrasted with OpenAI's internal discord where CFO Sarah Friar has flagged revenue shortfalls, massive compute commitments projecting $121 billion in 2028 spending, and sidelining from key planning. Anthropic's enterprise momentum in coding tools and ARR growth has propelled its private valuation past OpenAI's $852 billion to near $900 billion, with recent $50 billion funding talks and faster path to cash positivity bolstering first-mover positioning. Watch for S-1 filings and Q2 earnings previews as pivotal catalysts in this AI lab IPO race.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$53,284End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 66.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by Anthropic's aggressive timeline targeting as early as October 2026 amid banker discussions with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, contrasted with OpenAI's internal discord where CFO Sarah Friar has flagged revenue shortfalls, massive compute commitments projecting $121 billion in 2028 spending, and sidelining from key planning. Anthropic's enterprise momentum in coding tools and ARR growth has propelled its private valuation past OpenAI's $852 billion to near $900 billion, with recent $50 billion funding talks and faster path to cash positivity bolstering first-mover positioning. Watch for S-1 filings and Q2 earnings previews as pivotal catalysts in this AI lab IPO race.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$53,284End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 66.5% implied probability of IPOing first over OpenAI, driven by Anthropic's aggressive timeline targeting as early as October 2026 amid banker discussions with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, contrasted with OpenAI's internal discord where CFO Sarah Friar has flagged revenue shortfalls, massive compute commitments projecting $121 billion in 2028 spending, and sidelining from key planning. Anthropic's enterprise momentum in coding tools and ARR growth has propelled its private valuation past OpenAI's $852 billion to near $900 billion, with recent $50 billion funding talks and faster path to cash positivity bolstering first-mover positioning. Watch for S-1 filings and Q2 earnings previews as pivotal catalysts in this AI lab IPO race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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