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icon for ¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
Política·Oriente Medio

¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?

icon for ¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
Política·Oriente Medio

¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?

Sí

13% probabilidad
Polymarket

$74,791 Vol.

Sí

13% probabilidad
Polymarket

$74,791 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by the fallout from the early-year US-Iran war and a fragile April 8 ceasefire mediated by Pakistan. Recent White House review of Iran's latest proposal to unblock the Strait of Hormuz has stalled over red lines on Tehran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and US sanctions, with President Trump publicly urging Iran to "get smart soon" on April 29. While Spain and Switzerland have reopened their Tehran embassies, the State Department maintains a Level 4 travel warning and Virtual Embassy Iran, issuing alerts for Americans to depart amid ongoing risks of detention and unrest. Full diplomatic normalization required for embassy reopening remains distant, with no official US commitments amid persistent bilateral tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$74,791
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 87% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by the fallout from the early-year US-Iran war and a fragile April 8 ceasefire mediated by Pakistan. Recent White House review of Iran's latest proposal to unblock the Strait of Hormuz has stalled over red lines on Tehran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and US sanctions, with President Trump publicly urging Iran to "get smart soon" on April 29. While Spain and Switzerland have reopened their Tehran embassies, the State Department maintains a Level 4 travel warning and Virtual Embassy Iran, issuing alerts for Americans to depart amid ongoing risks of detention and unrest. Full diplomatic normalization required for embassy reopening remains distant, with no official US commitments amid persistent bilateral tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$74,791
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?" con 13%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 13¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 13% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?" ha generado $74.8K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 1, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?" es "¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?" con 13%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 13% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.