US-Iran military exchanges in the Persian Gulf have escalated tensions around Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling most of its crude shipments, but recent US airstrikes deliberately targeted only military sites like bunkers, radar stations, and ammo depots—sparing oil infrastructure as confirmed by Pentagon statements on April 7. Iranian officials warned that strikes on energy facilities would trigger retaliation against regional oil assets, yet no kinetic strike has hit the terminal itself amid ongoing tanker loadings. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability for a hit by April 30 due to these barriers, though continued Iranian proxy attacks on shipping lanes or failed ceasefire talks could prompt escalation before resolution.