Trader consensus prices "No" at 79.5% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite severe war-induced economic pressures. Over 60 days into the US-Iran conflict, a naval blockade, sanctions, and a prolonged internet shutdown have triggered massive job losses, record rial depreciation, and inflation, yet hardliners led by IRGC figures like Major General Ahmad Vahidi have consolidated power under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Recent Supreme National Security Council meetings on April 28-29 preempted protest risks through security crackdowns and unity appeals from Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with no widespread unrest since January's suppressed demonstrations. Loyal IRGC and Basij forces maintain street control, while uncompromising negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues underscore regime durability, though prolonged blockade could test stability ahead of potential US proposals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$16,225,686 Vol.
$16,225,686 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$16,225,686 Vol.
$16,225,686 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 79.5% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite severe war-induced economic pressures. Over 60 days into the US-Iran conflict, a naval blockade, sanctions, and a prolonged internet shutdown have triggered massive job losses, record rial depreciation, and inflation, yet hardliners led by IRGC figures like Major General Ahmad Vahidi have consolidated power under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Recent Supreme National Security Council meetings on April 28-29 preempted protest risks through security crackdowns and unity appeals from Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with no widespread unrest since January's suppressed demonstrations. Loyal IRGC and Basij forces maintain street control, while uncompromising negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues underscore regime durability, though prolonged blockade could test stability ahead of potential US proposals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$16,225,686Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 79.5% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite severe war-induced economic pressures. Over 60 days into the US-Iran conflict, a naval blockade, sanctions, and a prolonged internet shutdown have triggered massive job losses, record rial depreciation, and inflation, yet hardliners led by IRGC figures like Major General Ahmad Vahidi have consolidated power under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Recent Supreme National Security Council meetings on April 28-29 preempted protest risks through security crackdowns and unity appeals from Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with no widespread unrest since January's suppressed demonstrations. Loyal IRGC and Basij forces maintain street control, while uncompromising negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues underscore regime durability, though prolonged blockade could test stability ahead of potential US proposals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$16,225,686Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 79.5% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite severe war-induced economic pressures. Over 60 days into the US-Iran conflict, a naval blockade, sanctions, and a prolonged internet shutdown have triggered massive job losses, record rial depreciation, and inflation, yet hardliners led by IRGC figures like Major General Ahmad Vahidi have consolidated power under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Recent Supreme National Security Council meetings on April 28-29 preempted protest risks through security crackdowns and unity appeals from Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with no widespread unrest since January's suppressed demonstrations. Loyal IRGC and Basij forces maintain street control, while uncompromising negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues underscore regime durability, though prolonged blockade could test stability ahead of potential US proposals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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