Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market—highlighted by the strong May 2026 jobs report and May CPI readings—have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near current levels through year-end. With the target range holding at 3.50–3.75% after the April meeting and futures markets pricing an effective rate around 3.8% by late 2026, the closely matched Polymarket odds between 3.75% and 4.0% reflect uncertainty over whether the June 17 FOMC will signal steady policy or open the door to modest hikes. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI and employment releases plus any shift in FOMC dot-plot medians, as geopolitical pressures and above-target price growth continue to limit downside rate risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,0% 33.0%
3.75% 31.8%
4.25% 16.2%
3.5% 8.2%
$6,601,012 Vol.
$6,601,012 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1,0%
1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
1%
1.75%
1%
2,0%
1%
2.25%
1%
2,5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3,0%
3%
3.25%
3%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
32%
4,0%
33%
4.25%
16%
≥ 4.5%
4%
4,0% 33.0%
3.75% 31.8%
4.25% 16.2%
3.5% 8.2%
$6,601,012 Vol.
$6,601,012 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1,0%
$219,214 Vol.
1%
1.25
$136,349 Vol.
1%
1.5%
$140,932 Vol.
1%
1.75%
$138,080 Vol.
1%
2,0%
$253,478 Vol.
1%
2.25%
$77,140 Vol.
1%
2,5%
$166,468 Vol.
1%
2.75%
$51,475 Vol.
1%
3,0%
$463,397 Vol.
3%
3.25%
$56,176 Vol.
3%
3.5%
$196,259 Vol.
8%
3.75%
$521,735 Vol.
32%
4,0%
$1,361,248 Vol.
33%
4.25%
$417,846 Vol.
16%
≥ 4.5%
$2,401,243 Vol.
4%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market—highlighted by the strong May 2026 jobs report and May CPI readings—have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near current levels through year-end. With the target range holding at 3.50–3.75% after the April meeting and futures markets pricing an effective rate around 3.8% by late 2026, the closely matched Polymarket odds between 3.75% and 4.0% reflect uncertainty over whether the June 17 FOMC will signal steady policy or open the door to modest hikes. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI and employment releases plus any shift in FOMC dot-plot medians, as geopolitical pressures and above-target price growth continue to limit downside rate risk.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Mercado abierto: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volumen
$6,601,012Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market—highlighted by the strong May 2026 jobs report and May CPI readings—have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near current levels through year-end. With the target range holding at 3.50–3.75% after the April meeting and futures markets pricing an effective rate around 3.8% by late 2026, the closely matched Polymarket odds between 3.75% and 4.0% reflect uncertainty over whether the June 17 FOMC will signal steady policy or open the door to modest hikes. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI and employment releases plus any shift in FOMC dot-plot medians, as geopolitical pressures and above-target price growth continue to limit downside rate risk.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volumen
$6,601,012Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market—highlighted by the strong May 2026 jobs report and May CPI readings—have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near current levels through year-end. With the target range holding at 3.50–3.75% after the April meeting and futures markets pricing an effective rate around 3.8% by late 2026, the closely matched Polymarket odds between 3.75% and 4.0% reflect uncertainty over whether the June 17 FOMC will signal steady policy or open the door to modest hikes. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI and employment releases plus any shift in FOMC dot-plot medians, as geopolitical pressures and above-target price growth continue to limit downside rate risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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