Polymarket traders price an 84.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike in June, reflecting Governing Council consensus from the April 30 meeting to hold rates at 2.00% while signaling tightening amid surging eurozone inflation. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict and persistent core pressures at 2.2%, outweighing slowing growth near 0.9% for the year. No-change odds at 14.5% capture minority caution on stagflation risks, with larger hikes or cuts dismissed amid clear hawkish path. Watch May CPI flash data and oil prices ahead of the June 11-12 decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 85%
No change 15%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$83,521 Vol.
$83,521 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
15%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
85%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 85%
No change 15%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos 1.9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$83,521 Vol.
$83,521 Vol.
11 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$16,285 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$15,031 Vol.
<1%
No change
$17,730 Vol.
15%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$15,384 Vol.
85%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$19,090 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Polymarket traders price an 84.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike in June, reflecting Governing Council consensus from the April 30 meeting to hold rates at 2.00% while signaling tightening amid surging eurozone inflation. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict and persistent core pressures at 2.2%, outweighing slowing growth near 0.9% for the year. No-change odds at 14.5% capture minority caution on stagflation risks, with larger hikes or cuts dismissed amid clear hawkish path. Watch May CPI flash data and oil prices ahead of the June 11-12 decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$83,521Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Polymarket traders price an 84.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike in June, reflecting Governing Council consensus from the April 30 meeting to hold rates at 2.00% while signaling tightening amid surging eurozone inflation. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict and persistent core pressures at 2.2%, outweighing slowing growth near 0.9% for the year. No-change odds at 14.5% capture minority caution on stagflation risks, with larger hikes or cuts dismissed amid clear hawkish path. Watch May CPI flash data and oil prices ahead of the June 11-12 decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$83,521Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price an 84.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike in June, reflecting Governing Council consensus from the April 30 meeting to hold rates at 2.00% while signaling tightening amid surging eurozone inflation. April 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict and persistent core pressures at 2.2%, outweighing slowing growth near 0.9% for the year. No-change odds at 14.5% capture minority caution on stagflation risks, with larger hikes or cuts dismissed amid clear hawkish path. Watch May CPI flash data and oil prices ahead of the June 11-12 decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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