The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—despite March PCE inflation accelerating to 3.5% year-over-year on oil shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects—anchors Polymarket's 82.5% implied probability against a 2026 rate hike, reflecting trader consensus on a near-neutral policy stance. March dot plot projections show a median 3.4% funds rate by year-end (range 2.6%-3.6%), with GDP growth at 2.4% and unemployment steady at 4.3%-4.4%, signaling no overheating. CME Fed funds futures for December 2026 imply rates around 3.56%, pricing minimal tightening risk. Key catalysts include April CPI (May 12 release) and nonfarm payrolls, amid three FOMC dissenters favoring neutral language.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$974,269 Vol.
$974,269 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$974,269 Vol.
$974,269 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—despite March PCE inflation accelerating to 3.5% year-over-year on oil shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects—anchors Polymarket's 82.5% implied probability against a 2026 rate hike, reflecting trader consensus on a near-neutral policy stance. March dot plot projections show a median 3.4% funds rate by year-end (range 2.6%-3.6%), with GDP growth at 2.4% and unemployment steady at 4.3%-4.4%, signaling no overheating. CME Fed funds futures for December 2026 imply rates around 3.56%, pricing minimal tightening risk. Key catalysts include April CPI (May 12 release) and nonfarm payrolls, amid three FOMC dissenters favoring neutral language.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$974,269Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—despite March PCE inflation accelerating to 3.5% year-over-year on oil shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects—anchors Polymarket's 82.5% implied probability against a 2026 rate hike, reflecting trader consensus on a near-neutral policy stance. March dot plot projections show a median 3.4% funds rate by year-end (range 2.6%-3.6%), with GDP growth at 2.4% and unemployment steady at 4.3%-4.4%, signaling no overheating. CME Fed funds futures for December 2026 imply rates around 3.56%, pricing minimal tightening risk. Key catalysts include April CPI (May 12 release) and nonfarm payrolls, amid three FOMC dissenters favoring neutral language.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$974,269Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—despite March PCE inflation accelerating to 3.5% year-over-year on oil shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects—anchors Polymarket's 82.5% implied probability against a 2026 rate hike, reflecting trader consensus on a near-neutral policy stance. March dot plot projections show a median 3.4% funds rate by year-end (range 2.6%-3.6%), with GDP growth at 2.4% and unemployment steady at 4.3%-4.4%, signaling no overheating. CME Fed funds futures for December 2026 imply rates around 3.56%, pricing minimal tightening risk. Key catalysts include April CPI (May 12 release) and nonfarm payrolls, amid three FOMC dissenters favoring neutral language.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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