The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30 reveals U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from Q4 2025's subdued 0.5% pace on gains in business investment, exports, and government spending, though decelerating consumer demand and rising imports tempered momentum. This resilient print, alongside the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast jumping to 3.7% for Q2 as of the same date—fueled by robust early-quarter consumer and nonresidential fixed investment data—bolsters trader consensus for sustained above-potential growth amid AI-driven capital spending. Elevated Q1 core PCE inflation at 4.3% introduces policy risks, with May nonfarm payrolls and ISM surveys as key near-term catalysts shaping market-implied odds. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.0–2.5% for Q2.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
1.5–2.0% 35%
2.0–2.5% 34%
2.5–3.0% 31%
≥3.5% 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
<1.0%
7%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
35%
2.0–2.5%
34%
2.5–3.0%
31%
3.0–3.5%
24%
≥3.5%
25%
1.5–2.0% 35%
2.0–2.5% 34%
2.5–3.0% 31%
≥3.5% 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
<1.0%
$0 Vol.
7%
1.0–1.5%
$0 Vol.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$0 Vol.
35%
2.0–2.5%
$0 Vol.
34%
2.5–3.0%
$0 Vol.
31%
3.0–3.5%
$0 Vol.
24%
≥3.5%
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30 reveals U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from Q4 2025's subdued 0.5% pace on gains in business investment, exports, and government spending, though decelerating consumer demand and rising imports tempered momentum. This resilient print, alongside the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast jumping to 3.7% for Q2 as of the same date—fueled by robust early-quarter consumer and nonresidential fixed investment data—bolsters trader consensus for sustained above-potential growth amid AI-driven capital spending. Elevated Q1 core PCE inflation at 4.3% introduces policy risks, with May nonfarm payrolls and ISM surveys as key near-term catalysts shaping market-implied odds. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.0–2.5% for Q2.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30 reveals U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from Q4 2025's subdued 0.5% pace on gains in business investment, exports, and government spending, though decelerating consumer demand and rising imports tempered momentum. This resilient print, alongside the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast jumping to 3.7% for Q2 as of the same date—fueled by robust early-quarter consumer and nonresidential fixed investment data—bolsters trader consensus for sustained above-potential growth amid AI-driven capital spending. Elevated Q1 core PCE inflation at 4.3% introduces policy risks, with May nonfarm payrolls and ISM surveys as key near-term catalysts shaping market-implied odds. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.0–2.5% for Q2.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30 reveals U.S. real GDP expanded at a 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from Q4 2025's subdued 0.5% pace on gains in business investment, exports, and government spending, though decelerating consumer demand and rising imports tempered momentum. This resilient print, alongside the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast jumping to 3.7% for Q2 as of the same date—fueled by robust early-quarter consumer and nonresidential fixed investment data—bolsters trader consensus for sustained above-potential growth amid AI-driven capital spending. Elevated Q1 core PCE inflation at 4.3% introduces policy risks, with May nonfarm payrolls and ISM surveys as key near-term catalysts shaping market-implied odds. Consensus economist forecasts cluster around 2.0–2.5% for Q2.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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