**Elevated inflation and geopolitical energy shocks have anchored near-certain market-implied odds for three consecutive Fed pauses through June.** Headline CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, the highest since 2023, driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict, while core CPI reached 2.9%. With the federal funds target steady at 3.50–3.75% after the March and April meetings, labor-market data showing the unemployment rate near 4.3–4.4% and subdued payroll gains have reinforced the FOMC’s patient stance. Traders view the June 16–17 decision as the final near-term catalyst, pricing virtually no probability of a cut absent rapid de-escalation or sharp disinflation. A swift resolution to energy pressures or unexpectedly weak June data remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 99.6%
Otro <1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte <1%
$1,868,818 Vol.
$1,868,818 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
100%
Otro
<1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
<1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 99.6%
Otro <1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte <1%
$1,868,818 Vol.
$1,868,818 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$385,027 Vol.
100%
Otro
$367,977 Vol.
<1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$370,472 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and geopolitical energy shocks have anchored near-certain market-implied odds for three consecutive Fed pauses through June.** Headline CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, the highest since 2023, driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict, while core CPI reached 2.9%. With the federal funds target steady at 3.50–3.75% after the March and April meetings, labor-market data showing the unemployment rate near 4.3–4.4% and subdued payroll gains have reinforced the FOMC’s patient stance. Traders view the June 16–17 decision as the final near-term catalyst, pricing virtually no probability of a cut absent rapid de-escalation or sharp disinflation. A swift resolution to energy pressures or unexpectedly weak June data remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,868,818Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and geopolitical energy shocks have anchored near-certain market-implied odds for three consecutive Fed pauses through June.** Headline CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, the highest since 2023, driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict, while core CPI reached 2.9%. With the federal funds target steady at 3.50–3.75% after the March and April meetings, labor-market data showing the unemployment rate near 4.3–4.4% and subdued payroll gains have reinforced the FOMC’s patient stance. Traders view the June 16–17 decision as the final near-term catalyst, pricing virtually no probability of a cut absent rapid de-escalation or sharp disinflation. A swift resolution to energy pressures or unexpectedly weak June data remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,868,818Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Elevated inflation and geopolitical energy shocks have anchored near-certain market-implied odds for three consecutive Fed pauses through June.** Headline CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, the highest since 2023, driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict, while core CPI reached 2.9%. With the federal funds target steady at 3.50–3.75% after the March and April meetings, labor-market data showing the unemployment rate near 4.3–4.4% and subdued payroll gains have reinforced the FOMC’s patient stance. Traders view the June 16–17 decision as the final near-term catalyst, pricing virtually no probability of a cut absent rapid de-escalation or sharp disinflation. A swift resolution to energy pressures or unexpectedly weak June data remain the primary scenarios that could still alter the path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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