Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 93.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% across March, April, and June FOMC meetings, backed by real-money consensus following the central bank's unanimous March pause and 8-4 April decision to hold steady amid surging March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains from gasoline spikes tied to Iran war uncertainties. Resilient labor markets, with March unemployment at 4.3% and stable jobless claims near 214,000, reinforce the no-cut stance despite hawkish dissents signaling openness to hikes. The March dot plot envisions gradual easing to low-3% by 2027, but sticky inflation tempers near-term expectations. June 16-17 proceedings and Powell's May 15 chair transition loom as catalysts, with sharper disinflation or labor softening potentially challenging the pause consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 95%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 4.4%
Otro 1.3%
$1,033,070 Vol.
$1,033,070 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
95%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
4%
Otro
1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 95%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 4.4%
Otro 1.3%
$1,033,070 Vol.
$1,033,070 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$45,259 Vol.
95%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$20,435 Vol.
4%
Otro
$222,079 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 93.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% across March, April, and June FOMC meetings, backed by real-money consensus following the central bank's unanimous March pause and 8-4 April decision to hold steady amid surging March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains from gasoline spikes tied to Iran war uncertainties. Resilient labor markets, with March unemployment at 4.3% and stable jobless claims near 214,000, reinforce the no-cut stance despite hawkish dissents signaling openness to hikes. The March dot plot envisions gradual easing to low-3% by 2027, but sticky inflation tempers near-term expectations. June 16-17 proceedings and Powell's May 15 chair transition loom as catalysts, with sharper disinflation or labor softening potentially challenging the pause consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,033,070Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 93.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% across March, April, and June FOMC meetings, backed by real-money consensus following the central bank's unanimous March pause and 8-4 April decision to hold steady amid surging March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains from gasoline spikes tied to Iran war uncertainties. Resilient labor markets, with March unemployment at 4.3% and stable jobless claims near 214,000, reinforce the no-cut stance despite hawkish dissents signaling openness to hikes. The March dot plot envisions gradual easing to low-3% by 2027, but sticky inflation tempers near-term expectations. June 16-17 proceedings and Powell's May 15 chair transition loom as catalysts, with sharper disinflation or labor softening potentially challenging the pause consensus.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,033,070Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 93.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% across March, April, and June FOMC meetings, backed by real-money consensus following the central bank's unanimous March pause and 8-4 April decision to hold steady amid surging March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—driven by 10.9% energy gains from gasoline spikes tied to Iran war uncertainties. Resilient labor markets, with March unemployment at 4.3% and stable jobless claims near 214,000, reinforce the no-cut stance despite hawkish dissents signaling openness to hikes. The March dot plot envisions gradual easing to low-3% by 2027, but sticky inflation tempers near-term expectations. June 16-17 proceedings and Powell's May 15 chair transition loom as catalysts, with sharper disinflation or labor softening potentially challenging the pause consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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