Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's April 29 announcement to remain on the Board of Governors after his chair term expires May 15—potentially through January 2028—has driven Polymarket trader consensus toward a year-end exit, with December 31 implying roughly 50% probability amid low odds for May or summer departures. This rare move defies precedent, where outgoing chairs typically fully step down, and counters Trump administration pressure, including threats of removal and nominee Kevin Warsh's pending Senate confirmation as successor, viewed as more dovish on rates. Markets price ongoing tensions over Fed independence, with policy continuity at risk until Warsh assumes leadership post-next FOMC in June; recent DOJ closure of a Powell probe cleared short-term hurdles but fuels expectations of eventual ouster.