Strong recent inflation data and a resilient labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—with a 0.5% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, while core measures also edged higher. May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. These figures reinforce the Fed’s data-dependent stance, with the target range at 3.50-3.75% and officials signaling patience amid above-target inflation. A clear shift would require either sharply cooler June CPI (due July 14) or a notable labor-market deterioration to alter the trader consensus priced into Fed funds futures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 2.4%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$9,822,179 Vol.
$9,822,179 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Sin cambio
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 2.4%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$9,822,179 Vol.
$9,822,179 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,444,786 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$1,069,071 Vol.
2%
Sin cambio
$1,625,018 Vol.
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$4,115,474 Vol.
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,567,906 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong recent inflation data and a resilient labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—with a 0.5% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, while core measures also edged higher. May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. These figures reinforce the Fed’s data-dependent stance, with the target range at 3.50-3.75% and officials signaling patience amid above-target inflation. A clear shift would require either sharply cooler June CPI (due July 14) or a notable labor-market deterioration to alter the trader consensus priced into Fed funds futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$9,822,179Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong recent inflation data and a resilient labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—with a 0.5% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, while core measures also edged higher. May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. These figures reinforce the Fed’s data-dependent stance, with the target range at 3.50-3.75% and officials signaling patience amid above-target inflation. A clear shift would require either sharply cooler June CPI (due July 14) or a notable labor-market deterioration to alter the trader consensus priced into Fed funds futures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$9,822,179Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong recent inflation data and a resilient labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—its highest level since 2023—with a 0.5% monthly gain driven largely by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, while core measures also edged higher. May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. These figures reinforce the Fed’s data-dependent stance, with the target range at 3.50-3.75% and officials signaling patience amid above-target inflation. A clear shift would require either sharply cooler June CPI (due July 14) or a notable labor-market deterioration to alter the trader consensus priced into Fed funds futures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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