Polymarket traders price an 87.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the central bank's April 28-29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation near 3%, elevated oil prices from the Iran conflict, and resilient labor market data despite rising jobless claims. Solid Q1 GDP growth and persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs have solidified a "wait-and-see" stance, tempering cut expectations to 7.5% for 25 basis points while pricing hikes below 4% absent a sharp inflation reacceleration. Key catalysts ahead include the June 16-17 FOMC, May CPI/PCE releases, and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift the market-implied rate path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 88%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 8%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.3%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.1%
$4,838,752 Vol.
$4,838,752 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
8%
Sin cambio
88%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambio 88%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 8%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.3%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.1%
$4,838,752 Vol.
$4,838,752 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$374,246 Vol.
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$242,599 Vol.
8%
Sin cambio
$636,291 Vol.
88%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,217,304 Vol.
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$368,311 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 87.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the central bank's April 28-29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation near 3%, elevated oil prices from the Iran conflict, and resilient labor market data despite rising jobless claims. Solid Q1 GDP growth and persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs have solidified a "wait-and-see" stance, tempering cut expectations to 7.5% for 25 basis points while pricing hikes below 4% absent a sharp inflation reacceleration. Key catalysts ahead include the June 16-17 FOMC, May CPI/PCE releases, and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$4,838,752Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 87.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the central bank's April 28-29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation near 3%, elevated oil prices from the Iran conflict, and resilient labor market data despite rising jobless claims. Solid Q1 GDP growth and persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs have solidified a "wait-and-see" stance, tempering cut expectations to 7.5% for 25 basis points while pricing hikes below 4% absent a sharp inflation reacceleration. Key catalysts ahead include the June 16-17 FOMC, May CPI/PCE releases, and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$4,838,752Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price an 87.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the central bank's April 28-29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky core PCE inflation near 3%, elevated oil prices from the Iran conflict, and resilient labor market data despite rising jobless claims. Solid Q1 GDP growth and persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs have solidified a "wait-and-see" stance, tempering cut expectations to 7.5% for 25 basis points while pricing hikes below 4% absent a sharp inflation reacceleration. Key catalysts ahead include the June 16-17 FOMC, May CPI/PCE releases, and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift the market-implied rate path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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