Robust U.S. labor market conditions and positive economic expansion underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2026. The Sahm Rule indicator stands at just 0.10 as of May, well below its 0.50 recession threshold, while the unemployment rate holds near 4.3% and real GDP expanded at a 1.6–2.0% annualized pace in Q1. Forecasters project 2.2–2.5% full-year growth supported by resilient consumer spending and AI-related capital expenditures, even as headline CPI reached 4.2% in May amid elevated energy prices near $100 per barrel. The Federal Reserve has maintained the funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, with yield-curve models pricing recession odds below 15% over the next twelve months. Key near-term catalysts include the June inflation and employment reports plus the next FOMC meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Recesión en Estados Unidos a finales de 2026?
¿Recesión en Estados Unidos a finales de 2026?
Sí
$1,567,559 Vol.
$1,567,559 Vol.
31 ene 2027
Sí
$1,567,559 Vol.
$1,567,559 Vol.
31 ene 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRobust U.S. labor market conditions and positive economic expansion underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2026. The Sahm Rule indicator stands at just 0.10 as of May, well below its 0.50 recession threshold, while the unemployment rate holds near 4.3% and real GDP expanded at a 1.6–2.0% annualized pace in Q1. Forecasters project 2.2–2.5% full-year growth supported by resilient consumer spending and AI-related capital expenditures, even as headline CPI reached 4.2% in May amid elevated energy prices near $100 per barrel. The Federal Reserve has maintained the funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, with yield-curve models pricing recession odds below 15% over the next twelve months. Key near-term catalysts include the June inflation and employment reports plus the next FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Mercado abierto: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$1,567,559Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRobust U.S. labor market conditions and positive economic expansion underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2026. The Sahm Rule indicator stands at just 0.10 as of May, well below its 0.50 recession threshold, while the unemployment rate holds near 4.3% and real GDP expanded at a 1.6–2.0% annualized pace in Q1. Forecasters project 2.2–2.5% full-year growth supported by resilient consumer spending and AI-related capital expenditures, even as headline CPI reached 4.2% in May amid elevated energy prices near $100 per barrel. The Federal Reserve has maintained the funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, with yield-curve models pricing recession odds below 15% over the next twelve months. Key near-term catalysts include the June inflation and employment reports plus the next FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volumen
$1,567,559Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. labor market conditions and positive economic expansion underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2026. The Sahm Rule indicator stands at just 0.10 as of May, well below its 0.50 recession threshold, while the unemployment rate holds near 4.3% and real GDP expanded at a 1.6–2.0% annualized pace in Q1. Forecasters project 2.2–2.5% full-year growth supported by resilient consumer spending and AI-related capital expenditures, even as headline CPI reached 4.2% in May amid elevated energy prices near $100 per barrel. The Federal Reserve has maintained the funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, with yield-curve models pricing recession odds below 15% over the next twelve months. Key near-term catalysts include the June inflation and employment reports plus the next FOMC meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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