Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 79.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by the central bank's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month, with annual inflation hitting 3.3% on spiking energy prices—gasoline up 21.2%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, bolstering labor market resilience. CME FedWatch aligns, pricing near-certainty for June holds at 97-98%, pushing cut expectations to late 2026; watch May 12 CPI and June 16-17 FOMC for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 80%
Other 11%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.3%
$47,106 Vol.
$47,106 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
80%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
11%
Pause–Pause–Pause 80%
Other 11%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.3%
$47,106 Vol.
$47,106 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,847 Vol.
80%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,527 Vol.
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,121 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,056 Vol.
2%
Other
$1,569 Vol.
11%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 79.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by the central bank's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month, with annual inflation hitting 3.3% on spiking energy prices—gasoline up 21.2%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, bolstering labor market resilience. CME FedWatch aligns, pricing near-certainty for June holds at 97-98%, pushing cut expectations to late 2026; watch May 12 CPI and June 16-17 FOMC for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$47,106Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 79.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by the central bank's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month, with annual inflation hitting 3.3% on spiking energy prices—gasoline up 21.2%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, bolstering labor market resilience. CME FedWatch aligns, pricing near-certainty for June holds at 97-98%, pushing cut expectations to late 2026; watch May 12 CPI and June 16-17 FOMC for shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$47,106Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 79.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, driven by the central bank's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month, with annual inflation hitting 3.3% on spiking energy prices—gasoline up 21.2%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, bolstering labor market resilience. CME FedWatch aligns, pricing near-certainty for June holds at 97-98%, pushing cut expectations to late 2026; watch May 12 CPI and June 16-17 FOMC for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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