Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93% implied probability for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to decrease its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% at the May 7, 2026 meeting, reflecting the central bank's surprise 3-2 vote to cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid weak growth despite inflation hovering above the 3% target. Early April CPI eased marginally to 4.53% year-on-year from March's 4.59% spike, bolstering easing bets as headline inflation averages 4.1% in Q1 2026 and core pressures moderate slowly. This positioning aligns with Citi's year-end forecast at 6.50%, though a hawkish pivot could emerge from peso volatility, renewed inflationary surges, or divided board dynamics signaling no change.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoDecisión del Banco de México en mayo
Decisión del Banco de México en mayo
Disminución 93%
Sin cambios 8%
Aumento <1%
$219,584 Vol.
$219,584 Vol.
7 may 2026
Disminución
93%
Sin cambios
8%
Aumento
<1%
Disminución 93%
Sin cambios 8%
Aumento <1%
$219,584 Vol.
$219,584 Vol.
7 may 2026
Disminución
$76,228 Vol.
93%
Sin cambios
$78,406 Vol.
8%
Aumento
$66,401 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93% implied probability for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to decrease its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% at the May 7, 2026 meeting, reflecting the central bank's surprise 3-2 vote to cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid weak growth despite inflation hovering above the 3% target. Early April CPI eased marginally to 4.53% year-on-year from March's 4.59% spike, bolstering easing bets as headline inflation averages 4.1% in Q1 2026 and core pressures moderate slowly. This positioning aligns with Citi's year-end forecast at 6.50%, though a hawkish pivot could emerge from peso volatility, renewed inflationary surges, or divided board dynamics signaling no change.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
Volumen
$219,584Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93% implied probability for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to decrease its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% at the May 7, 2026 meeting, reflecting the central bank's surprise 3-2 vote to cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid weak growth despite inflation hovering above the 3% target. Early April CPI eased marginally to 4.53% year-on-year from March's 4.59% spike, bolstering easing bets as headline inflation averages 4.1% in Q1 2026 and core pressures moderate slowly. This positioning aligns with Citi's year-end forecast at 6.50%, though a hawkish pivot could emerge from peso volatility, renewed inflationary surges, or divided board dynamics signaling no change.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$219,584Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93% implied probability for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to decrease its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% at the May 7, 2026 meeting, reflecting the central bank's surprise 3-2 vote to cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid weak growth despite inflation hovering above the 3% target. Early April CPI eased marginally to 4.53% year-on-year from March's 4.59% spike, bolstering easing bets as headline inflation averages 4.1% in Q1 2026 and core pressures moderate slowly. This positioning aligns with Citi's year-end forecast at 6.50%, though a hawkish pivot could emerge from peso volatility, renewed inflationary surges, or divided board dynamics signaling no change.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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