Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, with 56% implied probability, driven by seat projections favoring PQ efficiency among francophone voters despite tight vote intentions. Recent Léger (April 20) and polling averages (e.g., 338Canada April 23: PQ 31%, PLQ 29%) show a narrow PQ edge translating to 64 projected seats versus PLQ's 44, amid CAQ's collapse to 15% under new Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault's January resignation. PQ by-election wins, like Chicoutimi in February, and widespread desire for change (63% per Léger) sustain momentum for leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, while PLQ under Charles Milliard gains but lags in battleground ridings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
Ganador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
PQ 56%
PLQ 36%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$457,322 Vol.
$457,322 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
56%
PLQ
36%
CAQ
9%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 56%
PLQ 36%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$457,322 Vol.
$457,322 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
$48,819 Vol.
56%
PLQ
$53,184 Vol.
36%
CAQ
$50,441 Vol.
9%
PCQ
$148,480 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$107,468 Vol.
<1%
QS
$48,930 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, with 56% implied probability, driven by seat projections favoring PQ efficiency among francophone voters despite tight vote intentions. Recent Léger (April 20) and polling averages (e.g., 338Canada April 23: PQ 31%, PLQ 29%) show a narrow PQ edge translating to 64 projected seats versus PLQ's 44, amid CAQ's collapse to 15% under new Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault's January resignation. PQ by-election wins, like Chicoutimi in February, and widespread desire for change (63% per Léger) sustain momentum for leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, while PLQ under Charles Milliard gains but lags in battleground ridings.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$457,322Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, with 56% implied probability, driven by seat projections favoring PQ efficiency among francophone voters despite tight vote intentions. Recent Léger (April 20) and polling averages (e.g., 338Canada April 23: PQ 31%, PLQ 29%) show a narrow PQ edge translating to 64 projected seats versus PLQ's 44, amid CAQ's collapse to 15% under new Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault's January resignation. PQ by-election wins, like Chicoutimi in February, and widespread desire for change (63% per Léger) sustain momentum for leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, while PLQ under Charles Milliard gains but lags in battleground ridings.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$457,322Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions the Parti Québécois (PQ) as the frontrunner to win the most seats in Quebec's general election by October 5, 2026, with 56% implied probability, driven by seat projections favoring PQ efficiency among francophone voters despite tight vote intentions. Recent Léger (April 20) and polling averages (e.g., 338Canada April 23: PQ 31%, PLQ 29%) show a narrow PQ edge translating to 64 projected seats versus PLQ's 44, amid CAQ's collapse to 15% under new Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault's January resignation. PQ by-election wins, like Chicoutimi in February, and widespread desire for change (63% per Léger) sustain momentum for leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, while PLQ under Charles Milliard gains but lags in battleground ridings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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