Keiko Fujimori holds a razor-thin lead of roughly 600 votes out of nearly 20 million cast in Peru’s June 7 runoff against Roberto Sánchez, with more than 98% of ballots counted. Traders price an overwhelming probability on a final Fujimori margin of 0.2–0.3% because the remaining contested and overseas votes—concentrated in urban strongholds—continue to favor her, consistent with exit polls and historical patterns in prior tight Peruvian runoffs. Sánchez gained ground from rural Andean precincts, yet the overall trajectory points to a sub-0.1-percentage-point outcome once the electoral authority completes its review. Potential challenges include recounts of disputed ballots, allegations of irregularities, or delays extending into July that could shift a few thousand votes, though current evidence indicates these are unlikely to reverse the narrow result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSegunda vuelta de las elecciones en Perú: ¿Margen de victoria? (0,1%)
Segunda vuelta de las elecciones en Perú: ¿Margen de victoria? (0,1%)
Fujimori 0.2–0.3% 95.3%
Fujimori 0.3–0.4% 3.3%
Fujimori 0,1–0,2% 1.8%
Fujimori 0,4–0,5% <1%
$1,884,613 Vol.
$1,884,613 Vol.
Fujimori 1%+
<1%
Fujimori 0,9–1,0%
<1%
Fujimori 0,8–0,9%
<1%
Fujimori 0,7–0,8%
<1%
Fujimori 0,6–0,7%
<1%
Fujimori 0,5–0,6%
<1%
Fujimori 0,4–0,5%
<1%
Fujimori 0.3–0.4%
3%
Fujimori 0.2–0.3%
95%
Fujimori 0,1–0,2%
2%
Fujimori 0–0,1%
<1%
Sánchez 0–0.1%
<1%
Sánchez 0,1–0,2%
<1%
Sánchez 0,2–0,3%
<1%
Sánchez 0,3–0,4%
<1%
Sánchez 0,4–0,5%
<1%
Sánchez 0,5–0,6%
<1%
Sánchez 0,6–0,7%
<1%
Sánchez 0.7–0.8%
<1%
Sánchez 0.8–0.9%
<1%
Sánchez 0,9–1,0%
<1%
Sánchez 1%+
<1%
Otro
<1%
Fujimori 0.2–0.3% 95.3%
Fujimori 0.3–0.4% 3.3%
Fujimori 0,1–0,2% 1.8%
Fujimori 0,4–0,5% <1%
$1,884,613 Vol.
$1,884,613 Vol.
Fujimori 1%+
$61,458 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,9–1,0%
$33,568 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,8–0,9%
$31,635 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,7–0,8%
$30,751 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,6–0,7%
$40,044 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,5–0,6%
$80,985 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0,4–0,5%
$177,980 Vol.
<1%
Fujimori 0.3–0.4%
$267,482 Vol.
3%
Fujimori 0.2–0.3%
$147,840 Vol.
95%
Fujimori 0,1–0,2%
$226,004 Vol.
2%
Fujimori 0–0,1%
$239,094 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0–0.1%
$175,888 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,1–0,2%
$134,443 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,2–0,3%
$51,086 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,3–0,4%
$36,198 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,4–0,5%
$34,140 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,5–0,6%
$28,110 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,6–0,7%
$22,146 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.7–0.8%
$15,485 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0.8–0.9%
$8,706 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 0,9–1,0%
$7,727 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez 1%+
$8,872 Vol.
<1%
Otro
$28,343 Vol.
<1%
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Keiko Fujimori holds a razor-thin lead of roughly 600 votes out of nearly 20 million cast in Peru’s June 7 runoff against Roberto Sánchez, with more than 98% of ballots counted. Traders price an overwhelming probability on a final Fujimori margin of 0.2–0.3% because the remaining contested and overseas votes—concentrated in urban strongholds—continue to favor her, consistent with exit polls and historical patterns in prior tight Peruvian runoffs. Sánchez gained ground from rural Andean precincts, yet the overall trajectory points to a sub-0.1-percentage-point outcome once the electoral authority completes its review. Potential challenges include recounts of disputed ballots, allegations of irregularities, or delays extending into July that could shift a few thousand votes, though current evidence indicates these are unlikely to reverse the narrow result.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado abierto: Jun 8, 2026, 10:19 PM ET
Volumen
$1,884,613Mercado abierto
Jun 8, 2026, 10:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Keiko Fujimori holds a razor-thin lead of roughly 600 votes out of nearly 20 million cast in Peru’s June 7 runoff against Roberto Sánchez, with more than 98% of ballots counted. Traders price an overwhelming probability on a final Fujimori margin of 0.2–0.3% because the remaining contested and overseas votes—concentrated in urban strongholds—continue to favor her, consistent with exit polls and historical patterns in prior tight Peruvian runoffs. Sánchez gained ground from rural Andean precincts, yet the overall trajectory points to a sub-0.1-percentage-point outcome once the electoral authority completes its review. Potential challenges include recounts of disputed ballots, allegations of irregularities, or delays extending into July that could shift a few thousand votes, though current evidence indicates these are unlikely to reverse the narrow result.
The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$1,884,613Mercado abierto
Jun 8, 2026, 10:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Keiko Fujimori holds a razor-thin lead of roughly 600 votes out of nearly 20 million cast in Peru’s June 7 runoff against Roberto Sánchez, with more than 98% of ballots counted. Traders price an overwhelming probability on a final Fujimori margin of 0.2–0.3% because the remaining contested and overseas votes—concentrated in urban strongholds—continue to favor her, consistent with exit polls and historical patterns in prior tight Peruvian runoffs. Sánchez gained ground from rural Andean precincts, yet the overall trajectory points to a sub-0.1-percentage-point outcome once the electoral authority completes its review. Potential challenges include recounts of disputed ballots, allegations of irregularities, or delays extending into July that could shift a few thousand votes, though current evidence indicates these are unlikely to reverse the narrow result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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