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Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

icon for ¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?
Mundo·Oriente Medio

¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 80.2%

Reza Pahlavi 6%

Sin Jefe de Estado 2.6%

Abbas Araghchi 2.6%

Polymarket

$14,857,881 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 80.2%

Reza Pahlavi 6%

Sin Jefe de Estado 2.6%

Abbas Araghchi 2.6%

Polymarket

$14,857,881 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,668,266 Vol.

80%

Reza Pahlavi

$288,389 Vol.

6%

Sin Jefe de Estado

$803,688 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$519,062 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$1,937,731 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$593,856 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,118,201 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$479,239 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$647,263 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadineyad

$431,038 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$339,642 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$619,645 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$319,040 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$200,266 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$450,515 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$234,004 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$148,819 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$78,982 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$130,599 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$69,094 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$143,008 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$315,813 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$144,823 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$135,387 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$123,006 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$673,648 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$459,974 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$175,491 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$98,489 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$275,463 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered an expedited Assembly of Experts process that selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via unanimous vote. This outcome reflected IRGC backing, emphasis on regime cohesion under wartime pressure, and preference for internal continuity over external challengers or more reformist clerical figures. Mojtaba's position has since been reinforced by official statements on his decision-making role despite reported injuries from the strikes, with limited public indications of immediate instability or alternative succession maneuvers through mid-2026. Traders price in high continuity probability for year-end given these institutional and security dynamics, while lower odds for options such as Reza Pahlavi or Abbas Araghchi align with their distance from core power centers and lack of comparable recent procedural momentum.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$14,857,881
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered an expedited Assembly of Experts process that selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via unanimous vote. This outcome reflected IRGC backing, emphasis on regime cohesion under wartime pressure, and preference for internal continuity over external challengers or more reformist clerical figures. Mojtaba's position has since been reinforced by official statements on his decision-making role despite reported injuries from the strikes, with limited public indications of immediate instability or alternative succession maneuvers through mid-2026. Traders price in high continuity probability for year-end given these institutional and security dynamics, while lower odds for options such as Reza Pahlavi or Abbas Araghchi align with their distance from core power centers and lack of comparable recent procedural momentum.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volumen
$14,857,881
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 32 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 80%, seguido de "Reza Pahlavi" con 6%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 80¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 80% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" ha generado $14.9 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 1, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?", explora los 32 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" es "Mojtaba Khamenei" con 80%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 80% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Reza Pahlavi" con 6%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Líder de Irán a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.