US and Israeli airstrikes in late February 2026 targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, significantly degrading its uranium enrichment capacity and stockpile of near-weapons-grade material, according to IAEA reports from March. The agency noted suspended enrichment activities but limited access to bombed sites, with no verified evidence of weaponization progress. Ongoing US-led sanctions, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and indirect negotiations in Oman have intensified pressure, extending Iran's estimated breakout timeline beyond 2027 amid technical setbacks. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi emphasized surviving know-how but stressed verification needs; trader consensus at 90% "No" reflects these barriers, though rapid covert rebuilding or diplomatic collapse could shift odds.