Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 have substantially damaged enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA access and verification. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, with stockpiles of highly enriched material reportedly buried under rubble and no confirmed recovery efforts underway. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations focus on a phased ceasefire, sanctions relief, and potential limits on enrichment or stockpile management, with statements from both sides emphasizing commitments against weaponization. These factors, combined with the compressed timeline to 2027, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear weapon acquisition remains unlikely in the near term.