Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C or higher as Mexico City's peak temperature today at Benito Juárez International Airport, with 99.7% implied probability reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like ECMWF and GFS. Clear skies under a persistent high-pressure ridge, combined with dry season conditions before rainy season onset, are driving expectations of highs reaching 29-31°C, consistent with recent observations of 30°C+ in late April and historical May averages around 26-27°C that have trended warmer amid climate variability. Model runs updated in the last 24 hours show no divergence, with minimal cloud cover projected. Realistic challenges include an unexpected afternoon shower or northerly wind shift introducing cooler air, though current upper-air patterns make this unlikely; hourly airport observations will provide final confirmation by evening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 1?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 1?
28°C or higher 99.6%
27°C <1%
25°C <1%
24°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
100%
28°C or higher 99.6%
27°C <1%
25°C <1%
24°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
18°C or below
$119 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$235 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$120 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,176 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,085 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$2,156 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C or higher as Mexico City's peak temperature today at Benito Juárez International Airport, with 99.7% implied probability reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like ECMWF and GFS. Clear skies under a persistent high-pressure ridge, combined with dry season conditions before rainy season onset, are driving expectations of highs reaching 29-31°C, consistent with recent observations of 30°C+ in late April and historical May averages around 26-27°C that have trended warmer amid climate variability. Model runs updated in the last 24 hours show no divergence, with minimal cloud cover projected. Realistic challenges include an unexpected afternoon shower or northerly wind shift introducing cooler air, though current upper-air patterns make this unlikely; hourly airport observations will provide final confirmation by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volumen
$7,632Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C or higher as Mexico City's peak temperature today at Benito Juárez International Airport, with 99.7% implied probability reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like ECMWF and GFS. Clear skies under a persistent high-pressure ridge, combined with dry season conditions before rainy season onset, are driving expectations of highs reaching 29-31°C, consistent with recent observations of 30°C+ in late April and historical May averages around 26-27°C that have trended warmer amid climate variability. Model runs updated in the last 24 hours show no divergence, with minimal cloud cover projected. Realistic challenges include an unexpected afternoon shower or northerly wind shift introducing cooler air, though current upper-air patterns make this unlikely; hourly airport observations will provide final confirmation by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,632Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 28°C or higher as Mexico City's peak temperature today at Benito Juárez International Airport, with 99.7% implied probability reflecting strong alignment across forecast models from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and international sources like ECMWF and GFS. Clear skies under a persistent high-pressure ridge, combined with dry season conditions before rainy season onset, are driving expectations of highs reaching 29-31°C, consistent with recent observations of 30°C+ in late April and historical May averages around 26-27°C that have trended warmer amid climate variability. Model runs updated in the last 24 hours show no divergence, with minimal cloud cover projected. Realistic challenges include an unexpected afternoon shower or northerly wind shift introducing cooler air, though current upper-air patterns make this unlikely; hourly airport observations will provide final confirmation by evening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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