PAGASA's latest 5-day outlook, updated April 30 via WRF model runs, projects a 35°C high temperature for Port Area in Metro Manila on May 2 under fair weather dominated by easterlies, with minimal 10% rain chance enabling high solar insolation during peak dry season. Trader consensus favors 36°C at 46.5% implied probability, driven by recent observations exceeding forecasts—such as 36.2°C at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on April 30 and 36.7°C on April 29—reflecting urban heat island amplification in concrete-heavy areas. Model ensembles show 1°C spreads, with slight intensification potential from neutral ENSO conditions; updated PAGASA guidance expected May 1 could refine odds as resolution hinges on official station maximums.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Manila on May 2?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 2?
36°C 44%
37°C 30%
35°C 19%
34°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
2%
34°C
7%
35°C
19%
36°C
44%
37°C
30%
38°C
3%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
<1%
36°C 44%
37°C 30%
35°C 19%
34°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 may 2026
30°C or below
$1,343 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$664 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$175 Vol.
1%
33°C
$1,087 Vol.
2%
34°C
$354 Vol.
7%
35°C
$414 Vol.
19%
36°C
$171 Vol.
44%
37°C
$303 Vol.
30%
38°C
$91 Vol.
3%
39°C
$275 Vol.
1%
40°C or higher
$1,644 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest 5-day outlook, updated April 30 via WRF model runs, projects a 35°C high temperature for Port Area in Metro Manila on May 2 under fair weather dominated by easterlies, with minimal 10% rain chance enabling high solar insolation during peak dry season. Trader consensus favors 36°C at 46.5% implied probability, driven by recent observations exceeding forecasts—such as 36.2°C at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on April 30 and 36.7°C on April 29—reflecting urban heat island amplification in concrete-heavy areas. Model ensembles show 1°C spreads, with slight intensification potential from neutral ENSO conditions; updated PAGASA guidance expected May 1 could refine odds as resolution hinges on official station maximums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ET
Volumen
$6,522Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA's latest 5-day outlook, updated April 30 via WRF model runs, projects a 35°C high temperature for Port Area in Metro Manila on May 2 under fair weather dominated by easterlies, with minimal 10% rain chance enabling high solar insolation during peak dry season. Trader consensus favors 36°C at 46.5% implied probability, driven by recent observations exceeding forecasts—such as 36.2°C at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on April 30 and 36.7°C on April 29—reflecting urban heat island amplification in concrete-heavy areas. Model ensembles show 1°C spreads, with slight intensification potential from neutral ENSO conditions; updated PAGASA guidance expected May 1 could refine odds as resolution hinges on official station maximums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,522Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 12:53 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's latest 5-day outlook, updated April 30 via WRF model runs, projects a 35°C high temperature for Port Area in Metro Manila on May 2 under fair weather dominated by easterlies, with minimal 10% rain chance enabling high solar insolation during peak dry season. Trader consensus favors 36°C at 46.5% implied probability, driven by recent observations exceeding forecasts—such as 36.2°C at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on April 30 and 36.7°C on April 29—reflecting urban heat island amplification in concrete-heavy areas. Model ensembles show 1°C spreads, with slight intensification potential from neutral ENSO conditions; updated PAGASA guidance expected May 1 could refine odds as resolution hinges on official station maximums.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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