Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 34°C (29.5% implied probability) for Lagos's highest temperature at Murtala Muhammed International Airport on May 1, driven by NiMet's 2026 seasonal forecast of above-normal May heat amid late-April highs exceeding 35°C, yet closely matched with 33°C (25%) and 35°C (22%) due to inherent forecast uncertainty in the seasonal transition. Differentiating factors include afternoon convective activity—thunderstorms or patchy clouds (20–70% chance per models) could suppress peaks below 33°C via reduced solar insolation, while persistent sea breeze delays and urban heat island effects enable 34–35°C under partly cloudy skies, as hinted in current hourly guidance showing afternoon peaks near 32–33°C. Final airport observations by midnight UTC will resolve amid high humidity (80%+) moderating extremes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Lagos el 1 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Lagos el 1 de mayo?
34°C 30%
35°C 29%
33°C 24%
32°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
28°C o menos
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
9%
32°C
10%
33°C
24%
34°C
30%
35°C
22%
36°C
2%
37°C
1%
38°C o más
<1%
34°C 30%
35°C 29%
33°C 24%
32°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 may 2026
28°C o menos
$1,599 Vol.
3%
29°C
$300 Vol.
1%
30°C
$121 Vol.
3%
31°C
$403 Vol.
9%
32°C
$340 Vol.
10%
33°C
$331 Vol.
24%
34°C
$249 Vol.
30%
35°C
$104 Vol.
22%
36°C
$589 Vol.
2%
37°C
$424 Vol.
1%
38°C o más
$1,308 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 34°C (29.5% implied probability) for Lagos's highest temperature at Murtala Muhammed International Airport on May 1, driven by NiMet's 2026 seasonal forecast of above-normal May heat amid late-April highs exceeding 35°C, yet closely matched with 33°C (25%) and 35°C (22%) due to inherent forecast uncertainty in the seasonal transition. Differentiating factors include afternoon convective activity—thunderstorms or patchy clouds (20–70% chance per models) could suppress peaks below 33°C via reduced solar insolation, while persistent sea breeze delays and urban heat island effects enable 34–35°C under partly cloudy skies, as hinted in current hourly guidance showing afternoon peaks near 32–33°C. Final airport observations by midnight UTC will resolve amid high humidity (80%+) moderating extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volumen
$5,768Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 34°C (29.5% implied probability) for Lagos's highest temperature at Murtala Muhammed International Airport on May 1, driven by NiMet's 2026 seasonal forecast of above-normal May heat amid late-April highs exceeding 35°C, yet closely matched with 33°C (25%) and 35°C (22%) due to inherent forecast uncertainty in the seasonal transition. Differentiating factors include afternoon convective activity—thunderstorms or patchy clouds (20–70% chance per models) could suppress peaks below 33°C via reduced solar insolation, while persistent sea breeze delays and urban heat island effects enable 34–35°C under partly cloudy skies, as hinted in current hourly guidance showing afternoon peaks near 32–33°C. Final airport observations by midnight UTC will resolve amid high humidity (80%+) moderating extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$5,768Fecha de finalización
1 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 34°C (29.5% implied probability) for Lagos's highest temperature at Murtala Muhammed International Airport on May 1, driven by NiMet's 2026 seasonal forecast of above-normal May heat amid late-April highs exceeding 35°C, yet closely matched with 33°C (25%) and 35°C (22%) due to inherent forecast uncertainty in the seasonal transition. Differentiating factors include afternoon convective activity—thunderstorms or patchy clouds (20–70% chance per models) could suppress peaks below 33°C via reduced solar insolation, while persistent sea breeze delays and urban heat island effects enable 34–35°C under partly cloudy skies, as hinted in current hourly guidance showing afternoon peaks near 32–33°C. Final airport observations by midnight UTC will resolve amid high humidity (80%+) moderating extremes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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