Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 15°C (32%) and 14°C (29.5%), with 16°C at 17%, reflecting inherent uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's highest temperature amid a persistent cold air mass from the Balkans. Recent developments include a May 1 cold snap bringing northerly winds, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that have suppressed daytime heating below the 21°C May average, as noted in Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates. Global models like GFS and ECMWF diverge slightly on peak afternoon insolation, with some runs showing brief clearing favoring 15-16°C versus overcast persistence at 14°C; differentiation hinges on wind shear timing and low-level moisture. Hourly MGM observations through late afternoon will clarify resolution based on official station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 14?
15°C 36%
14°C 34%
16°C 16%
17°C 4%
$22,573 Vol.
$22,573 Vol.
14 may 2026
13°C
4%
14°C
34%
15°C
36%
16°C
16%
17°C
4%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
2%
15°C 36%
14°C 34%
16°C 16%
17°C 4%
$22,573 Vol.
$22,573 Vol.
14 may 2026
13°C
$2,847 Vol.
4%
14°C
$2,425 Vol.
34%
15°C
$1,654 Vol.
36%
16°C
$802 Vol.
16%
17°C
$1,694 Vol.
4%
18°C
$1,941 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$5,657 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 15°C (32%) and 14°C (29.5%), with 16°C at 17%, reflecting inherent uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's highest temperature amid a persistent cold air mass from the Balkans. Recent developments include a May 1 cold snap bringing northerly winds, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that have suppressed daytime heating below the 21°C May average, as noted in Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates. Global models like GFS and ECMWF diverge slightly on peak afternoon insolation, with some runs showing brief clearing favoring 15-16°C versus overcast persistence at 14°C; differentiation hinges on wind shear timing and low-level moisture. Hourly MGM observations through late afternoon will clarify resolution based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 12:54 AM ET
Volumen
$22,573Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 12:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 15°C (32%) and 14°C (29.5%), with 16°C at 17%, reflecting inherent uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's highest temperature amid a persistent cold air mass from the Balkans. Recent developments include a May 1 cold snap bringing northerly winds, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that have suppressed daytime heating below the 21°C May average, as noted in Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates. Global models like GFS and ECMWF diverge slightly on peak afternoon insolation, with some runs showing brief clearing favoring 15-16°C versus overcast persistence at 14°C; differentiation hinges on wind shear timing and low-level moisture. Hourly MGM observations through late afternoon will clarify resolution based on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$22,573Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 12:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 15°C (32%) and 14°C (29.5%), with 16°C at 17%, reflecting inherent uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's highest temperature amid a persistent cold air mass from the Balkans. Recent developments include a May 1 cold snap bringing northerly winds, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that have suppressed daytime heating below the 21°C May average, as noted in Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates. Global models like GFS and ECMWF diverge slightly on peak afternoon insolation, with some runs showing brief clearing favoring 15-16°C versus overcast persistence at 14°C; differentiation hinges on wind shear timing and low-level moisture. Hourly MGM observations through late afternoon will clarify resolution based on official station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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