Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 90.5% probability of Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature reaching 56°F or higher on May 16, backed by consistent National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s under a strengthening high-pressure ridge aloft. This positioning follows a rebound from an early-week cool spell with highs in the 40s-50s, as southerly winds and clear skies now enable robust diurnal heating from morning lows near 50°F, aligning with May 16 climatological normals of 70.6°F. Realistic challenges include an unforecast weak cold front or enhanced lake breeze from Lake Michigan introducing clouds and northerly shear to cap peaks below 56°F, though upper-air analyses show low risk. Monitor NWS hourly updates and afternoon soundings for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on May 16?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 16?
56°F or higher 99.3%
54-55°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
1%
46-47°F
1%
48-49°F
1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56°F or higher
99%
56°F or higher 99.3%
54-55°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
44-45°F <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
37°F or below
$459 Vol.
<1%
38-39°F
$171 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$161 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$261 Vol.
1%
44-45°F
$162 Vol.
1%
46-47°F
$162 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$161 Vol.
1%
50-51°F
$61 Vol.
1%
52-53°F
$11 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$17 Vol.
1%
56°F or higher
$294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 90.5% probability of Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature reaching 56°F or higher on May 16, backed by consistent National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s under a strengthening high-pressure ridge aloft. This positioning follows a rebound from an early-week cool spell with highs in the 40s-50s, as southerly winds and clear skies now enable robust diurnal heating from morning lows near 50°F, aligning with May 16 climatological normals of 70.6°F. Realistic challenges include an unforecast weak cold front or enhanced lake breeze from Lake Michigan introducing clouds and northerly shear to cap peaks below 56°F, though upper-air analyses show low risk. Monitor NWS hourly updates and afternoon soundings for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$1,677Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 90.5% probability of Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature reaching 56°F or higher on May 16, backed by consistent National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s under a strengthening high-pressure ridge aloft. This positioning follows a rebound from an early-week cool spell with highs in the 40s-50s, as southerly winds and clear skies now enable robust diurnal heating from morning lows near 50°F, aligning with May 16 climatological normals of 70.6°F. Realistic challenges include an unforecast weak cold front or enhanced lake breeze from Lake Michigan introducing clouds and northerly shear to cap peaks below 56°F, though upper-air analyses show low risk. Monitor NWS hourly updates and afternoon soundings for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,677Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 90.5% probability of Chicago O'Hare's highest temperature reaching 56°F or higher on May 16, backed by consistent National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks in the low-to-mid 60s under a strengthening high-pressure ridge aloft. This positioning follows a rebound from an early-week cool spell with highs in the 40s-50s, as southerly winds and clear skies now enable robust diurnal heating from morning lows near 50°F, aligning with May 16 climatological normals of 70.6°F. Realistic challenges include an unforecast weak cold front or enhanced lake breeze from Lake Michigan introducing clouds and northerly shear to cap peaks below 56°F, though upper-air analyses show low risk. Monitor NWS hourly updates and afternoon soundings for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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